I report monthly to Realty Times the market conditions for Richmond area. Below are this month’s comments for November:
I am sure you all believe if you looked up the word Pollyanna in the dictionary that you’d find a picture of me. For months now, you have heard me soapbox that the Richmond Real Estate market is actually in state of equilibrium and bucking national and particularly state trends. I am sure you see me as being completely tone deaf to the sensational doom and gloom stories, which we are handed daily by the national media on the housing market. Well, I am tone deaf to this garbage. Not because I am simply overly optimistic by nature, but by what I know, sense and feel from 20 plus years of real estate experience in this marketplace. What happens in Northern Virginia can stay in Northern Virginia. Let’s talk about Central Virginia instead.
November marked the first time all year that inventory levels fell rather than rose. While it will be another 2 weeks before this is reported by the VAR (Virginia Association of Realtors), current year to prior year sales for November (2006 to 2005) will show about a 4 % decrease for the Richmond area. This pales in comparison to national and state numbers. And then, there are all the other factors - days on market is dropping, sales price to list price ratio shows inconsequential discounts, dollar per square foot cost has remained constant, million dollar sales are 30 % above the 2005 record with a month of the year left, and then we have the historic factors.
I have been engaged in Richmond real estate through recessions, a S&L crisis, natural disasters, loss of over half of our Fortune 500 corporations, and whatever else you would care to throw at Richmond. I have never seen a down market. Whenever it’s at its worst elsewhere, Richmond just plateaus for the duration and when it turns Richmond always has a huge upward explosion in price. I think we are on the cusp of that turn now and here’s why.
If you spoke with any seasoned agent, they would tell you that the Richmond market peaked around August 2005. And if you asked any of the old timers, they will tell you 18 months is an eternity for a slow market in Richmond. Our market problems here have been brought on by the constant drumbeat of negative news by both the national and local media. Believe it or not, since November’s election, we have seen a measurable increase in activity. Come January, when the Democrats assume control, I can assure you that we will suddenly be bombarded with positive news by the media. Consumer confidence will begin to rise and the markets everywhere will start to improve. For you locally, there are numerous bargain opportunities in our current inventory. If you sit on the sideline too long, come next spring you don’t want to be an I-wish-I-had.
I also report statistics (i.e., average sales price, days on market, average size, and average dollar per square foot costs) for various submarkets (i.e., Chesterfield, Glen Allen, Mechanicsville, and Midlothian.) If you have an interest in these stats, you may find them
here. You will need to scroll down beyond the generic introduction.