Brick’s Blog

     About a year ago, I helped a family from Los Vegas relocate to Richmond. As usual in these relocations, you become close with the family, since you are their savant on all things Virginia. This pacticular family had some close friends in Northern Virginia, who kept telling them once they got settled they’d take them to the Neck. So when the question arose, "Brick, what is the Neck our friends are talking about it?", I was prepared.

     See, I grew up in the Northern Neck. Notice I said "grew up" not "from" the Northern Neck, because my father was a "come here" to the Neck in 1948. Even though my oldest brother, Ken and several of his grown children, still reside there, it would be presumptuous of me to claim true Neck heritage. Neck heritage is measured in centuries not generations. But I digress, let me return to my relocating family.

     Sunday night, I got an e-mail from the husband telling me they’d just gotten back from a great weekend at the Neck. Sorry, but I had to immediately e-mail and correct him. He didn’t spend the weekend "at" the Neck, he spent the weekend "in" the Neck. What my friend didn’t understand is the Neck is not just a geographic location, it is much more. It is first a "state of mind."

     You know the old work adage, "Never put off until tomorrow, what you can do today." Never been heard in the Neck. There is always something better to do than work - hunt, fish, boat or any combination,deviation, or improvement thereon. Don’t get me wrong. Neckers aren’t lazy. Neckers are talented and industrious folk. Want to build a pier, a seawall, maybe add an addition on your home? You’ve got plenty of help, even if your help is missing their day job. It’s all about your priorities and Priority 1 for any self respectin’ Necker is to enjoy the natural beauty and nature’s abundance found there first. All else can wait.

     Well, that’s my first installment on the Northern Neck. Stay tuned for more!

      Do you remember that Seinfeld episode, where Jerry has reserved a rental car and when he arrives to pick it up, the rental car company is out of cars? It leads to a shtick about how the rental car company knows how to take the reservation, but it is in honoring the reservation that the company has a problem. Well, that’s how I felt Sunday.

      I was out of fish oil capsules. Since I am a connoisseur of such things and my Nordic Naturals - Omega 3-6-9 aren’t available at anything as mundane at CVS, I knew a trip to the natural food store was on tap. Out in suburbia, our natural food store, Good Foods, is closed on Sundays. Knowing my schedule for the day, I knew I would be passing in the vicinity of Ellwood Thompson and surmised that ET as the area’s 1st natural food store would certainly carry my preferred brand.

     Even though I lived in the City for many years, I sometimes feel like I am entering an alternate universe when I revisit an area I haven’t frequented recently. The strip center where Ellwood Thompson is located is one I knew well. When we lived on Monument Avenue, the Blockbuster there was the one I used. The ABC store is around the corner. There use to be a High’s Ice Cream store there, which you know based on my waistline had to be a favorite. Hall Tree for Windsor Farms discards was another known entity. Ukrop’s, Little Caesar’s, CVS in the adjacent strip were all familiar haunts. When we moved from the City, Ellwood Thompson had only been ensconced there for a few years.

     Arriving near the dinner hour, I was amazed at how dominant Ellwood Thompson had become in this strip center. The cars and the foot traffic wasn’t all to the adjacent Blockbuster as in the past; it was to ET. Ellwood Thompson had become a PLAYER. But enough of that, I need to get this errand done.

     As I entered ET, I see what looks to be a cantaloupe on display, but it’s labeled as an "ambrosia" melon. It’s $2.99 @ pound. If you know me, then you know I am a frugal shopper. I can buy a whole (multiple in season) cantaloupe for this price, but estimating the weight at 2 pounds, knowing I won’t have to make another stop, wanting some fruit with dinner and just plain curious what the hell an ambrosia melon is, I caved to impulse. On to the supplement section and with one inquiry from a helpful clerk, I had my Omega 3-6-9’s and was at the check out. 

     It was then that it hit me. Had I been transported to New Zealand. Was this a Maori convention? All around me - nothing but tattoos and piercings - the clerks, the customers. Boy, what would Jerry do with this and what question would he pose. Let’s see, you very careful what you put in your body, it’s what you put on your body you don’t care about? Just asking.

     Oh, the ambrosia melon? Weighed a tad more than 3 pounds. Was $10. Just a juicer cantaloupe. You know there use to be a vegetable stand down the street from ET on a vacant lot where Floyd ends into Thompson. Do you know how much cantaloupe I could have bought there this time of year for $10?      

      Here’s some additional signage, which is gracing a few of my listings. Wells Fargo is offering an initial rate 1 % less than their standard quote for the first year. So what’s this translate to in real dollars? Let’s say for a 30 year rate at 6.625%, the first year would be calculated at 5.625%. For every $100,000 borrowed, the monthly savings is $65, so for the year it is $780. Do the math - $200,000 borrowed, $130 a month, $1,560 for the year - $300,000, $195, $2,340 - and so on and so on. This savings can also be applied to buy down the rate. For specifics, call my preferred contact, John Gregory. John’s direct number at Well Fargo is 804.281.5091. Let him know, you heard about it on Brick’s Blog. 

     Not too long ago, I use to begin my mornings by reading on-line editorials in several newspapers - New York Times (NYT), Washington Post (WaPo), and to balance my perspective the Washington Times (WT) and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).  Boy, did I think I was well informed. First, I dropped the NYT; I just couldn’t stand Paul Krugman. Maureen Dowd who I once found clever, became an irritant with her constant Bush (41 & 43) bashing. WaPo fell next - E.J. Dionne - is the pits. Why read the WT or WSJ - they just reinforced my conservative beliefs. Yep, another thing you can chalk up as Bush’s fault. Brick doesn’t read editorials anymore.

     Radio became my main source for information. As Sargent Joe Friday would say "Just the facts, ma’am." Unfortunately, even that has become tainted and like all media, trivialized. Cause célèbre should be something important to all - not that Lindsay Lohan is back in re-hab. I want to hear what is right about America.

     While I may not be able to hear it, read it or watch it, I can at least think it. So here’s my new mantra. It’s the first thought I want to have each morning. "It’s another great day in the greatest country in the World."  Jingoistic - you bet. America, love it or leave it.

     BTW, have you discovered Guy from Boston on YouTube. While he is very profane (that’s my X rated warning), he can be profound. Here’s an old clip, which I think explains what is truly wrong with America. Where have all the statesmen gone? God Bless America. We need His blessings.

     You know salesmen are a little bit like Joey Tribbiani from Friends with his infamous tagline "how you doin’?" Since all good sales people are constantly prospecting for new clients for their product, there are many times you are contacted unexpectedly where you find yourself unsure of whose on the other end of the line. My advise and course of action is to immediately become Joey, and warmly reply "how you doin’?"! Hopefully, as the conversation progresses, the dim and plentiful recesses of my mind will brighten enough to finally realize the identify of the one who is enduring my mindless jabbering. 

     This is starting to happen less to me, since I began to put more folks into my cell’s phone book. Now when cell rings, I not only see the number calling, but often the name of the caller as well. And no, I am not doing this for call screening; I like knowing who is calling, since it gives me a moment to prepare for the call.

     The one pitfall in being "Joey" is occasionally, I find myself unnecessarily chatting away with another salesman. Since I have a pretty good web presence, I am constantly solicited by placement companies, contact re-sellers, and assorted cyberspace con men. Thankfully, when they call, my cell shows an # 800 number or, even better, the "restricted" (i.e., a dead giveaway) notation. (Have you ever gotten a good call when the caller i.d. said "restricted"?)

     Of course, I don’t have every one’s numbers in my cell’s phone book (yet), so I will continue to religiously answer my cell. Hey, I know what you can do. Why don’t you refer someone to me today, and tell them to identify themselves with just their name when they call. Later, they can tell you exactly what the Joey treatment is really like! That cell number, 804.301.7598. BTW, I am off to the the golf course shortly and I NEVER have my cell on when I am there.   

        For the last few months, you’ve heard me say that there will be some incredible opportunities as we advance through the year. Well, here’s one I have. Welcome to 3805 Barrington Hill Drive, Richmond, VA 23233. Located in the Barrington subdivision off Church Road , this all brick Colonial has been repriced to $799,000 with the instructions - GET ME AN OFFER! 

     If the devil is in the details, than this home needs an exorcist! It is not often that you have the pleasure of offering for sale a property where you need to consult your architectural dictionary about every component of the home. Now that my memory has been recently refreshed on various terms, let me tell you about 3805 Barrington Hill Drive. The brick Georgian with a hipped roof is situated on one of the most private lots in Barrington. The main structure has quoins and limestone keystones over all windows on the front elevation with 3 dormers at the roof. The attached ell, that houses the garage, has a clipped gable. You’ll love the look from the street.

     Inside is just a feast for the eyes. The millwork is simply exquisite. In the formal areas, the casings around the doors and windows are fluted. The casements between rooms are all capped with pediments with dentil accent. Dentil is also the principal element in the multi member crown molding. When you transition to the informal areas, the casings become striated. Most transitions between formal and informal are accomplished by 15 lite french doors with transoms. The family room is huge, the kitchen is divine, and the patio off the rear is unbelievable. 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths with all baths have been recently remodeled with fabulous tiles. There are 9′ ceilings on both levels. Hardwood floors on both levels and the list goes on.

A VISUAL TOUR is here. The property is very easy to show, so call Brick at 804.301.7598 or have your agent contact me.

           I need to toot my own horn a little, so forgive me for a Foghorn Leghorn moment. Earlier this month when I reported market conditions, I mentioned that the sub prime mortgage mess did not apply to RIchmond. Here’s an extract from a CNN report dated August 14, 2007 to verify that statement.

"The lowest foreclosure rate recorded by RealtyTrac among the 100 metro areas surveyed was in Richmond, Virginia. It had just one for every 2,319 households, about the same as a year ago and a rate barely more than 1 percent of Stockton’s".

The highest foreclosure rate in nation currently is Stockton, CA. Thanks to Cathy Cray for forwarding this article to me.

The complete article is below.

Top 10 Foreclosure Cities

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The binge that many housing markets went on in the early- to mid-2000s is over, and some of the hottest markets like California are now experiencing the worst hangovers.

But other areas, especially many that recorded slower home price growth earlier this decade, have seen little increase in foreclosure rates, according to the latest data released Tuesday from RealtyTrac, the online marketer of foreclosure properties.

"While foreclosure activity has skyrocketed over the past year in many cities, particularly in California, Ohio and the Northeast," James Saccaccio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive, said in a statement, "foreclosure activity seems to be subsiding in parts of Texas, South Carolina and other states."

"Still," he said, "the overall trend is toward escalating foreclosure rates, with 82 of the top 100 metro areas reporting year-over-year increases in the number of homes affected by foreclosure."

Stockton, California now leads the nation in foreclosures. Of RealtyTrac’s top 10 metro areas for foreclosures, four are in Central California.

Coastal California cities are doing relatively well, although foreclosures are up there too. San Francisco had one foreclosure for every 263 households, a fairly low rate, but up 83 percent from the first six months of 2006.

Stockton city drew thousands of home buyers to the Central Valley area from the prohibitively expensive Bay-area markets during the housing boom and saw home prices nearly double in the four years ended December 31, 2005, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

Because of California’s outsized home prices, option and hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) interest-only loans became widespread. They enabled home buyers to get into properties they could not otherwise afford.

But often these loans were time bombs; hybrid ARMs, for example, reset to much higher rates - and payments - after the first two or three years of low fixed rates.

Many buyers were also approved for expensive mortgages based on applications in which income or assets went unproven, the so-called no- or low-doc loans, AKA "liar loans."

Lenders underwrote mortgages for these borrowers based on their income or asset claims without proof and many times the claims were exaggerated. When hard times hit, these borrowers had fewer resources to fall back on than the lenders anticipated and foreclosures followed.

Seven of the nation’s top 10 metro areas are in the Sun Belt. Only three are in economically hard-hit areas, historically the kinds of places that once produced the highest rates of foreclosure filings.

Stockton recorded one foreclosure filing for every 27 households during the six months ended June 30, a 256 percent increase compared with the first six months of 2006.

Number two in the nation was Detroit, where job losses in the auto industry drove foreclosures higher. One of every 29 households recorded a foreclosure filing there, almost double the rate of a year ago. Las Vegas (one of 31, up 142 percent) was third.

The other California cities in the top 10 were Riverside/ San Bernardino (one in 33, up 198 percent), Sacramento (one in 36, up 231 percent) and Bakersfield (one in 47, up 222 percent). Rounding out the top 10 were Denver at No. 6, Miami at No. 7, Memphis at No. 9 and Cleveland ranked 10th.

The lowest foreclosure rate recorded by RealtyTrac among the 100 metro areas surveyed was in Richmond, Virginia. It had just one for every 2,319 households, about the same as a year ago and a rate barely more than 1 percent of Stockton’s.

Other low foreclosure metro areas included Greenville, South Carolina (one in 1,721, down 66 percent), McAllen, Texas (one in 1,494, down 35 percent) and Honolulu (one in 1,151, up 68 percent).

 

     As we progress through the year, I find myself pondering more and more on what is different about Richmond’s current real estate market from past years. The biggest difference, of course, is in the number of properties for sale or our standing inventory. Today, we stand with inventory levels over 30 % higher than the highest point in 2006. 2006 marked a year where for the first time in a number of years, the market had an adequate inventory level. Multiple offers for the same property, offers above the list price and days as opposed to hours on market moderated to exhibit a more normal, balanced and realistic market. And while 2006 ended the year with fewer sales (i.e., 386 less units than in 2005), 2006 in retrospect was a stellar year.

     So why is there so much more inventory in 2007? Well, the obvious reasons is there is less absorption or homes sold, which typically occurs when mortgage rates are high, consumer confidence lacking, unemployment is high, and a stock market is in the tank. And although the stock market has been seeing some rough days of late, we currently have good mortgage rates, full employment and high consumer confidence. I do know builder inventories are up, especially in condominium conversions. We have now gone 2 years without what I would call a true Spring Market. But is this enough to explain the high inventory levels? I don’t think so. When I think I have found the answer, I’ll let you know.

Here’s what sales look like though July of this year versus the last 2 years.

      Currently, 2007 sales are trailing 2006 by 4.9 % and 2005 by 5.7 %. The silver lining is that the average sales prices for 2007 is some 5.5 % higher than 2006.

    I just listed this darling home in the Innsbrook area. Besides enjoying all the advantages of having Innsbrook as your neighbor, this home has just been refurbished with new laminate floors for the entire 1st floor. New neutral carpet has been installed throughout the 2nd floor. The kitchen has Corian counters and wonderful Eat-In area overlooking a nicely landscaped Rear Yard. And there’s a Party Deck, which just makes the Rear Yard that much better. 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Great Room with Fireplace, and a Dining Room with Oriel bay complete the package. Offer price is $259,500. Here’s a link to a Visual Tour for the Property.  There will be an Open House on Sunday, August 19th from 1 p.m. - 4 p.m.

     Sorry for my delay in posting this month. I have been busy, but unfortunately not productive. As you know, I report monthly market conditions to Realty Times. Here are my comments for July:

      Good golly, Miss Molly. Another down month. My preliminary figures for July 07 indicate the month will lag July 06 by 10 % or approximately 150 sold units. While this may sound insignificant, the loss in units sold over the last 2 months now has 07 in a 450 unit deficit compared to 06. Considering for all of 2006 the loss in units sold was only 385 compared to the record year 2005, the picture here is not pretty. If there is any good news, it is that the loss in units sold for July was half of what it was for June.

     At the beginning of 2007, there was an existing inventory level of a little over 9,000 units for sale in Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service, which was down from its highest point in 2006 of approximately 9,600 units for sale. Today that inventory level is in excess of 12,000 units. With inventories at this level, it is easy to understand the complete lack of motivation by buyers. Compounding the motivation problem is the media’s hype of the sub prime mortgage markets - much over blown in my opinion and not pertinent to the Richmond area due to Virginia’s strong regulatory agencies.

     Presently, the greater Richmond real estate market is bottom driven. 75 % of the market’s activity is occurring at under $400,000. Almost 60 % of this activity is below $300,000. The good news for the market is that days on market is remaining stable, as is the dollar per square foot cost on sales. The dollar per square foot cost for the year is actually up marginally. My list price to sales price ratio is typically seeing only 2 % discounts in the suburban areas. The City areas that I cover are seeing a little steeper discounting of 4 – 5 %. Million dollar sales continue to blowing away 2006’s record pace. 

     If you’re a buyer, there are and will be some incredible opportunities arising as we progress through the year. “Must Sell” situations are increasing; and with them fantastic opportunities for “in the know” buyers. So how do you become an “in the know” buyer? Find a skilled negotiator and listen to what they have to say. Personally, this isn’t the first time I’ve been to the rodeo. If you, too, had been a real estate agent in the Jimmy Carter years and survived, than you would know this market ain’t nuthin’. 

     Now more than anytime recently, sellers need a seasoned agent. Pricing and marketing homes to sell is learned through experience. Don’t trust your largest asset to some green agent and certainly not to any agent who tells you exactly what you want to hear. Hire a PRO. I am and have been one for years.

    I also report statistics (i.e., average sales price, sales price to list price ratio, median sales price, days on market, average size, and average dollar per square foot costs) for various submarkets (i.e., Chesterfield, Glen Allen, Mechanicsville, and Midlothian.) If you have an interest in these stats, you may find them here. You will need to scroll down beyond the generic introduction.