Brick’s Blog

     I was coming home today from church, (by the way, Happy Thanksgiving) and I heard something on the radio referring to tomorrow being "Black Friday", which made me think - why is the day after Thanksgiving called "Black Friday"? Doesn’t "black" usually connote bad or evil. Bad guys were black hats. The Mafia is referred to as the "Black Hand." Coalminers get black lung. And isn’t the day the of 1929 stock market crash called "Black Tuesday."

     Well, guess what - there is a "black" day for every day of the week. "Black Sunday" (1977) is a movie with a terrorist bomb plot. "Black Monday" (1987) was the modern day meltdown in Dow Jones. We already discussed Tuesday. "Black Wednesday" (1992) marks the collapse of the British Pound caused by currency speculation, with most notably George Soros leading the way. "Black Thursday" (1929) refers to the initial sell off in 1929 market, which preceded the fore mentioned Tuesday. "Black Saturday" has many references - a collapse in the Hong Kong markets (1983), the day God as man was dead (i.e., the day between Good Friday and Easter) and my personal favorite the day in 1984 that Vince McMahon assumed control of professional wrestling. Boy, "Black Friday" must really be bad. 

     Actually, not. It is "Black Friday" because it marks the first day of the official Christmas shopping season and is so named, since it is the first day supposedly that retailers will operate in the "black"  for the year. Now, aren’t you glad I cleared this up for you? Enough that you’ll get up at 4 a.m. and go stand in line? I didn’t think so.

     One of my Sunday rituals is to attempt the NYT Crossword. I subscribe online to the "Diversions" section of NYT for about $35 a year. I use to subscribe to the entire paper for about $79 a year, but since the slant of NYT Op/Ed page drives me completely nuts I now only subscribe to the "Diversions" section.

     On a good Sunday, I can solve the puzzle in about an hour. I think my record is about is about 32 minutes. (Boy, that must have been one easy puzzle that Sunday.) I typically go through the puzzle 2-3 times in each direction before I start cheating. Yeah, I cheat. Isn’t that the whole purpose of Google? I consider it more self education than cheating.

     Well, this morning I had about 1/2 of the puzzle solved. I hadn’t broken the "big" clue puzzle yet, but I had partials to some of the big clue entries. (Sunday NYT Crosswords have themes. If you can crack the theme of the puzzle, the big across/down entries become much easier.) One of the across clues in today’s puzzle titled World Pay was "Shakespearean Prince who is handsome and muscular." 9 letters; and I knew it ended in "L." I immediately thought PRINCE HAL, but that didn’t work with the down entries and besides the NYT would never have part of the clue repeated in the answer. So it was Google time. And all I really wanted was a list of Shakespearean princes whose name ended in "L."

     On my Google search, I had plenty of references to Hal, but I already knew that one. After all, I was an English major with my concentration in Renaissance literature, but one synopsis did catch my eye with the phrase "Studly Hal."  When I clicked on the entry, I was taken to Rex Parker’s blog, with the following banner: A Crossword Blog - PLEASE NOTE: In syndication, the Sunday NYT puzzle runs a week behind, and the dailies are six weeks behind. The puzzle number is the original publication date (e.g., 1122 = Nov. 22).  So there I had my first disappointment of the day. All the years I have been doing the NYT Crossword I had envisioned myself sharing in the endeavor with loyal crossworders around the world. Just knowing that there were those with a week jump on me ruined my day and thinking Rex Parker was one of them was even worse, but I accepted the answer and returned to my attempt to solve the puzzle.

     Surprisingly, the answer "Studly Hal" worked, but after another 15 minutes of trying to solve the theme of the puzzle I decided to return to Rex’s blog for more help. This time I read more than his banner. Turns out this pompous twit had solved the puzzle in 16 minutes and actually ranks the puzzle in difficulty each week. Bombastically, he explained the theme was actually Word Play, which was a  play on words for the title World Pay. Studly Hal was Study Hall. Clever, huh? In the past, whenever I got close on solving a Sunday puzzle, I patiently would wait until the following day for the unscramble code to be released. Now, like everything else in our have it now world, I won’t have to wait another day. I can just go to Rex’s blog. That’s provided I can stomach his drivel. Sunday’s just won’t be the same.   

     Call me, Scrooge. Wait a minute. Wrong Story. No, it’s not the wrong story just the wrong start to the story, so let’s begin again. The picture left is the "power pose" of my friends, Bob and Peggy Smolko. As you can guess by the pose, they are real estate agents. This is their old picture, their new "power pose" has the Colonial Capitol at Williamsburg in the background, which is where they live.

     I met Bob and Peggy 13 years ago when they relocated to Williamsburg from Brookline, MA, a suburb of Boston. I was doing some consulting work in Williamsburg at the time; and Bob and I became quick friends. We were quite the pair. Me, with my slow speech and Southern drawl. Bob, with his long "a" - ca-ah (car), ga-ah’den (garden), you know the accent.

     Well, Bob and Peg have become "Southernized" over the years. Now I am not claiming Bob’ s speech resembles mine now, but it is much softer these days. Peg still occasionally cannot understand me, but Bob can translate for her when that happens.

     Every year, Bob and Peg host a " client appreciation" party at their home in Ford’s Colony in late December. Peg must cook all month, because it is always a spectacular event. I guess it was 5 years ago that I realized just how "Southernize" my buddy, Bob, had become. We were standing in a group of people and Bob was talking with one of his new neighbors who was at the party. His neighbor was a northern transplant and had just moved into their "new" home in early November.

    Ever so tactfully, Bob complimented his new neighbor on their Christmas decorations. The neighbor accepted Bob’s compliment and began to wax on about his wife’s love for decorating at Christmas. Bob, then, steered the conversation into a discussion about Williamsburg’s Grand Illumination. Had the neighbor attended? Did he know the history? Bob was so masterful and then Bob ever so casually dropped the line, "you know, most folks wait until the Grand Illumination before decorating their homes." Oh, my brash buddy from Boston was now a Southern gentleman! Steeped in Virginia Tradition. I was so proud!

     A few days ago I noticed Christmas trees had been delivered to the grocery stores. I saw a Salvation Army kettle last night in front of a Ukrop’s. One of our neighbors already has placed wreaths and garlands on the exterior of their home. (They own Westbury Pharmacy so I can only assume it is ploy to guilt us into decorating our homes earlier and buying what we need from them!) Com’ on, we’re a week before Thanksgiving. Don’t make me have Bob talk to you.

     And if you didn’t know, The Grand Illumination will be on Sunday, December 2, 2007.

     As I mentioned in an earlier post, the sales activity for October once again had approximately 70% of all activity for October occurring under $300,000. The year to date figure under $300,000 is around 67 %. Here are the actual breakdowns for the month and the year.

 These sales apply only to the following areas of the Central Virginia Multiple Listing Service - City of Richmond (Areas 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60), County of Henrico (Areas 22, 32, 34, 42), Chesterfield County (Areas 52, 54, 62, 64), Hanover County (Areas 36, 44), Goochland County (Area 24) and Powhatan County (Area 66).

    As you should know by now, I report market conditions monthly for the Greater Richmond area to Realty Times. Here are my comments for October:

            Hooray. Finally, some encouraging numbers for October. No, we didn’t reverse the declining number of sales that the Richmond market has been experiencing since April. In fact, October ’07 versus October ’06 will show about a 10 % decline bringing the aggregate decline in total sales for the year to approximately 7.6 %. My encouragement is that the inventory level remained constant in October despite the declining sales number. The Richmond market began 2007 with slightly more than 9,000 properties on the market. While October showed an inventory level in excess of 12,700 properties, it was the first month this year that inventory did not increase from the previous month. For the year, the monthly inventory increase over the preceding month has been averaging 3 %, so holding the inventory level constant is heartening news. Now, don’t anticipate me to break into a rendition of “Happy Days Are Here Again”, but I am optimistic that we will begin to eat away at our inflated inventory level.  

 

The greater Richmond area is still in a bottom driven market. Once again, almost 70 % of sales for October occurred at under $300,000. For the year, this number has been averaging closer to 66 %, so October marked the second consecutive month that this  figure was closer to 70 %. Despite fewer sales and more of those sales occurring at lower prices, the average sales price for 2007 is up 4.2 % over 2006.  

 

For buyers, either entering the market for the first time or who have their existing home under contract, welcome to a true BUYERS’ MARKET. The selection of properties is simply UNBELIEVABLE. “MUST SELL” situations are increasing and some of the best deals in years will be had over the next few months. There are so many good buys out there, but they’re lost among all the inventory.  

 

If you’re not CRYSTAL CLEAR on what I am saying, I want you to envision me standing on top of my desk and jumping up and down, because I want you to heed this advice. Come the first of the year, I will be beginning my 24^th year of real estates sales in the Richmond market. Whenever Richmond has experienced a slow market in the past, the recovery has been marked by substantial increase in prices. Richmond plateaus in slow markets with steep price increases when it turns. That turn should be soon.               

 

     So call me, let’s go find one of those incredible bargains while we can. You don’t want to be “an I wish I had.”

     Here’s my monthly post on sales activity for various areas in the metro area. If you’d like to see a particular area covered in the future, please comment on the area. If there is enough sales activity for that area monthly, it will be added. Please remember that these sales are compiled from Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service, and therefore, only include sales involving a Realtor. My market condition comments will follow in the next few days. I am encouraged by October’s numbers!