Brick’s Blog

     Just like Michael Corleone in Godfather 3, "Every time I think I’m out, they pull me back in."  Yep, there I was out for dinner last night and the restaurant had its TV’s tuned to the "Great American Race." I confess, I watched, I rooted, and like Fredo in G2, I said a Hail Mary when a Toyota didn’t take the checkered for the Daytona 500. Take that, Joe Gibbs, you traitor.

     How can I guy who has won the Super Bowl three times, won 3 Winston Cups with Chevrolets (yeah, I know one was a Nextel, but I can’t bring myself to calling the Cup – Nextel), now be fielding an all TO’YO’TA team? And if it hadn’t been for Mercedes Benz, which owns Chrysler/Dodge, a damn TOY’OTA (how do you say this brand?) would have gone to Victory Lane in the 50th running of the 500. Shame on you, Joe! Kicking Chevrolet, when it’s down. GM only lost 39 billion last year. 

     Although I have said many times that I am done with NASCAR, it’s official this time. NASCAR now calls their redesigned big boxy safety first prototype the "Car of Tomorrow". Funny to me, it looks like a Prius.   

     With Valentine’s Day in the rear view mirror, it is fitting for me to make this post. See, I use to love NASCAR. While I don’t care about NASCAR anymore due many reasons (Nextel Cup, Toyota, The Challenge, Viagra sponsorship, Theresa Earnhardt & Junior, etc. - visit my Let Me Explain the South to You category for previous posts and clarification), NASCAR is still like that old flame who I am glad I didn’t marry, but I still like to hear good things about. So what stirred these buried feelings for me to make this post?

     Yesterday morning I was out early; and is my custom, my car radio was tuned to the AM dial. Reporting on the Daytona 500 at this 5:30 a.m. time was the sports reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Excuse me. WSJ reporting on NASCAR. Fella, you need to be reporting on the squash match at the Downtown Athletic Club. Or maybe croquet out on the Hamptons. Leave NASCAR to good ole boys who actually know about it and would know the first Junior was Johnson not Earnhardt. 

     Anyway, this twit starts droning on about the 500 being the Superbowl of NASCAR; and how ironically, it is the first race of the season. I knew any other true Southerner up and about at this hour; and probably on their way to Hardee’s for a biscuit, hearing this would go just as ballast as I did. WSJ, that’s the problem with NASCAR these days – too much Wall Street money. Just look what Wall Street did to Krispy Kreme. Damnit, I can’t even go get a dozen "hot" this morning (you bubbas, know what I mean) and consume 3/4 of them before I get home without feeling guilty. LBO’s, IPO’S….hey Wall Street how about a LSA……Leave South Alone.

     But enough of this rant. Junior, git it done! And Joe Gibbs, I’ve got a few words for you, too. Stay tuned.

     As you should know by now, I report market conditions monthly for the Greater Richmond area to Realty Times. Here are my comments for January:

            Sorry for my delay in posting my Market Conditions report for January ’08. As I mentioned in an earlier blog post (if you don’t subscribe to my blog, www.blog.bricksmith.com, there is frequent additional market information on the Greater Richmond VA Real Estate Market), I have been busy but not productive. Busy? How can you be busy, Brick? Everyone knows the Real Estate Market is in the crapper. When are you going to wake up and acknowledge the true conditions out there?

 

Well, sorry to disappoint everyone, but there is a glimmer of hope out there. Yes, closed sales for January ’08 were down over 34 % from January a year ago. Not such a stellar start for 2008, but “pending properties” were twice their previous month’s number and the highest number since August of 2007. (“Pendings” are properties placed under contract to close/settle in the near future.) There is no question the market is bottom driven with over 70 % of the activity occurring under the $300,000 price point. Actually, 90 % of the activity is under $ 500,000. Across the board, the average sales price for January declined although the dollar per square foot cost numbers remained unchanged. The same can be said for my Sale Price/List Price Ratio, which showed the Greater Richmond Area trading with only an average 2 % discount off the list price. My hoped decrease in inventory levels vanished in January, as active listings increased 4.7 % from the previous month returning the total number of active properties for sale over the 12,000 threshold again. Last year, the active inventory high level was slightly more than 12,600, so the inventory number will need to be closely monitored as we go forward in the year.

 

            As mentioned earlier, I have been busy. I have plenty of buyers that I am working with; and I am simply amazed at the choices available to them. Everywhere and at every price point, there is an excellent choice of product and it’s in abundance. Currently, a buyer has the option of “shopping” his offer, which means when an offer is made on his “preferred” property; the listing agent is strongly reminded that any of the competing properties also work for this buyer. It then becomes a matter of finding out who is the most motivated seller.

 

My broken record and past post from the last few months will once again be repeated: “For buyers, either entering the market for the first time or who have their existing home under contract, welcome to a true BUYERS’ MARKET. The selection of properties is simply UNBELIEVABLE. “MUST SELL” situations are everywhere and some of the best deals in years will be had while these inventory levels are elevated. So call me, let’s go find one of those incredible bargains while we can.”

     Here’s a sobering comparison – January 2008 and January 2007. How’s this for a number – 34.7 % less homes sold in January ’08 as compared to ‘07. Now that should get someone’s attention at your next cocktail party. Actually, the rest of the numbers are almost identical – like 70% of all sales occured at under the $300,000 price point and 90 % of the market activity was under the $500,000 price barrier.

     Although I have been busy, I have not been productive. If you are in any type of sales, than you understand what I mean. I have many buyers at present, so I know there is activity out there. When I report on market conditions in a few days, you’ll get a better appreciation of what I mean. For now, you’ll have to be satisfied with my monthly snapshot of various submarkets in the greater Richmond Real Estate Market.