Brick’s Blog

 

     I listed one of my favorite clubs on eBay this a.m. Sniffle, sniffle, weep, weep. Here’s the description for it:

     Shhh….I don’t want my old friend, Baffler, to know that I am betraying him. Just call me, Judas. This really is like getting rid of an old friend. This was my first utility club. The loft is 22 ° which is about a 3 iron, but due to the mass of the head will carry further and really bores through the air. You’ll love it out of the rough. In season, I have a weekly match with an old college buddy of mine; he was delighted when I retired this club. He was tired of getting "baffled."

     I live in Virginia and typically play twice a week from April through October with a range outing between rounds. Usually, I regrip my clubs every season, so this Lamkin grip is in very good shape. Shaft is Cobra Ultralight R-Flex. Club face and sole shows use but in overall good condition.

     I am an avid golfer and take great care of my clubs. This club was relunctantly "retired" in ‘06 when I replaced my existing bag configuration (lowest iron I carry now is a 6) and "Old Baffler" at 22 ° didn’t fit the gaps in my bag, so he was "put out to pasture" in my garage. "Old Baffler" deserves better and longs for the great outdoors and warmth of a summer day. Baff, old buddy, I am sorry, but you know my daughter is now playing and how long I have waited for one of my children to share my love of the game. She needs new clubs. I promise I’ll find you a good home and someone who will rely on you as much I have. Good night, Sweet Prince. 

      As promised, here is the updated homes sales figures through March and compared to the same period of 2007. While 2008 is showing almost a 40 % decline in units sold year to year, I don’t anticipate this trend to continue. The 1st quarter of 2007 was one of the best quarters in Richmond real estate history. It exceeded the 1st quarter of 2006 (2nd best year ever) and rivaled the record year of 2005. As we progress through the year, this decline will moderate. In the next day or two, I will post my observations on the market activity in March. Believe it or not, it is not as gloomy as one would think.      

 

March YTD		2008				2007
Price Range		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 - 99,999		76		4.26%		166		5.79%
100,000 - 199,999		550		30.85%		899		31.37%
200,000 - 299,999		620		34.77%		942		32.87%
300,000 - 399,999		266		14.92%		438		15.28%
400,000 - 499,999		119		6.67%		207		7.22%
500,000 - 599,999		69		3.87%		85		2.97%
600,000 - 699,999		32		1.79%		49		1.71%
700,000 - 799,999		12		0.67%		27		0.94%
800,000 - 899,999		15		0.84%		17		0.59%
900,000 - 999,999		1		0.06%		19		0.66%
1 Million plus		23		1.29%		17		0.59%
Total Sales/Pct.		1783		100.00%		2866		100.00%

     Again, my apologies for not posting these numbers in March, but when you think "all" of your personal and business data may be lost you can get distracted. Yesterday, The National Association of Realtors said pending U.S. home sales fell in February to the lowest reading since the index began in 2001. Since all Real Estate like politics is local, let’s look at how the Metro Richmond area (i.e., City of Richmond and the suburban counties of Chesterfield, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico and Powhatan) have fared so far this year. Below are the area sales for single family homes by price range and units through February 2008 with a comparison to the same period of 2007.

February YTD		2008				2007
Price Range		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 - 99,999		49		4.77%		90		5.45%
100,000 - 199,999		324		31.52%		547		33.11%
200,000 - 299,999		340		33.07%		533		32.26%
300,000 - 399,999		162		15.76%		244		14.77%
400,000 - 499,999		59		5.74%		108		6.54%
500,000 - 599,999		42		4.09%		56		3.39%
600,000 - 699,999		19		1.85%		26		1.57%
700,000 - 799,999		8		0.78%		18		1.09%
800,000 - 899,999		11		1.07%		8		0.48%
900,000 - 999,999		0		0.00%		10		0.61%
1 Million plus		14		1.36%		12		0.73%
Total Sales/Pct.		1028		100.00%		1652		100.00%

How’s that 37.8 DROP in unit sales grab you? Pretty sobering, isn’t it. With less unit sales, our inventory levels continue to rise. Less unit sales, less absorption, longer days on market. Good news is the percentage of sales by price range remains consistent as does our dollar per square foot costs. I’ll post March’s comparison later today, but for now the golf course calls.

     As many of you know, I am an avid, but average, golfer. I love the game that Mark Twain described as “a good walk ruined.” So you can imagine how my heart soared last year, when my daughter, Lucy Gordon, expressed an interest in golf and her desire to attempt to make the junior varsity golf team at her school. Since she was a complete novice of the game, I tried to temper her ambition by saying she should be satisfied if she was just allowed to practice with the team until her skills improved. Anyway, I already know that I will not lower my handicap or get the first lucky bounce this year, because the Golf Gods have smiled on me and Lucy Gordon is now a member of her junior varsity team. Was it her consummate skills? No, it was the numbers – 10 available slots and 10 players who tried out, but who cares. I know over the next few months she will vastly improve at golf; and I am grateful.  

You always hear golf promoted as a great character building experience, since it is the only sport where you can call a penalty on yourself; and are expected to do so. What Lucy Gordon does not know yet is that she is about to have the greatest learning experience any soon to be 15 year old young woman could ever have. For the next 2 ½ months, every weekday afternoon she will spend several hours in the company of 9 young men. Now most fathers would cringe at that thought, but I know the advantage to be gained. See, Lucy Gordon will quickly find out that the “male animal” is actually pretty simple. She will find these young men don’t worry about who said what about whom. She’ll learn that guys are just guys and why words like “hey, fellas, watch this” are the most used last words of men. When athletics are involved, men are out to impress other men; and in doing so, they reveal so much about themselves. Whether its arrogance, ego, insecurity, even compassion, it can all be seen when men are playing with a ball.  

If you have ever seen the movie, Diner, than you know the bridegroom, Eddie, wants his fiancée, Elise, to pass a football quiz on the Baltimore Colts before he’ll marry her. Hey, future beaus of Lucy Gordon, if she ever asks you to grab two of your best friends to fill a foursome be mindful it may be more than golf outing.

     Where you been, Brick? Finally, admit that the Richmond Real Estate Market is "in the tank" and end it all? No, I had a laptop meltdown mid March. After 10 days of allowing the Geek Squad to continually change my registry and just create another problem for me, I retrieved my laptop and did a reload. Took a weekend to do so, but I am finally caught up, back at it, and as optimistic as ever.

     So what’s going on out there? I heard/read/maybe dreamt the phrase "Recession Depression" used to describe the Real Estate Market. And why would anyone not be DEPRESSED, when all we hear from the media is constant incessant drumbeat of how horrible it is out there? Today, the NAR (National Association of Realtors) is out with February numbers, which are depressing, but if you read my blog you already knew February sucked. That February condition will be verified in the numbers below, since what went under contract in February typically settled/sold in March. And guess what, I think we’ve hit the bottom, at least in Richmond. I’ll elaborated further later this week, when I post my Market Conditions report, but March activity was very encouraging. Stay tuned, I promise more to come this week:

For the 13 single family homes sold in

Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond

(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)

Average Sales Price in March $ 359,117

Median Sales Price ……………  $ 370,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 95.9 %

Days on Market …………………….. 74

Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 1,997 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….$ 179.83

 

For the 14 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond

(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)

Average Sales Price in March $ 315,014

Median Price ……………………. $ 273,950

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 97.6 %

Days on Market ……………………. 32

Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,691 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……..   $ 186.29

 

For the 63 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County

(Zips 23226, 23229, 23233, 23238)

Average Sales Price in March $ 287,072

Median Sales Price ……………  $ 256,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……….  96.1 %

Days on Market …………………….    76

Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 1,992 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ………. $ 144.11

 

For the 101 single family homes sold in Chesterfield

(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)

Average Sales Price for March $ 280,976

Median Sales Price …………..$ 255,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……..  98.7 %

Average Days on Market……………. 75

Average Size 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,264 square ft

Average $ per square foot ………..$ 124.11

 

For the 72 single family homes sold in Glen Allen

(Zips 23059 and 23060)

Average Sales Price for March $ 365,829

Median Sales Price………………  $ 325,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………  97.0 %

Average Days on Market ………….   65

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,586 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……… $ 141.47

 

For the 50 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville

(Zips 23111 and 23116)

Average Sales Price for March $ 291,035

Median Price ……………………   $ 258,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 96.6 %

Average Days on Market ………….. 58

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 2,215 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 131.39

 

For 78 single family homes sold in Midlothian

(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)

Average Sales Price for March $ 372,332

Median Price …………………….. $ 272,500

Sales Price List Price Ratio …….    96.8 %

Average Days on Market …………..  67

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,561 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……….. $ 145.39