May 30, 2008
Virginia Watermen and the Chesapeake Bay
That’s my older brother, Ken. He was a little younger then, but like all of us Smiths he doesn’t like to have his picture taken too often. These days Brother Ken sells real estate in the Northern Neck. If you’re looking for waterfront or waterview real estate, than you need to contact Ken. Ken knows the water and especially the waters of the Northern Neck, because Brother Ken has been a marine contractor (seawalls, piers, etc.), a commercial fisherman, and plyer of every cove, creek or tributary found in the Northern Neck. You can visit his real estate website here. He’ll be glad to drive you to any property, but truthfully he’d prefer to throw you into one of his boats and show you it from the water first!
Of late, Brother Ken has turned his attentions to the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. As acting president of the Virginia Waterman’s Association, he has been on a crusade to restore the Bay and its tributaries to what H.L. Mencken once called "the immense protein factory." As children, a dinner of blue crabs could usually be found around the pilings of anyone’s pier. We’d marvel at the catch of the huge haul seine nets dragged ashore at Ragged Point. Our fall oysters were fresh from local waters and not trucked in from the Gulf of Mexico.
On Monday, June 2, Brother Ken will be on NPR between noon and 12:30 making his case. A live stream is available here. For more information and to contribute to this great cause, visit the Virginia Waterman’s Association site.
Here’s a great opportunity for what I have tagged as "A Home for Many Generations." This 6 bedroom 4.5 bath Colonial was custom built for local home improvement guru, Mr. Fix-it, in 1986 by Allen Coleman. It is located in the The Colonies at Wilde Lake, which is located off Lauderdale Drive at Causeway Drive in western Henrico. The schools for this community are Nuckols Farm, Pocahontas and Godwin. 
34 % Drop. How’s that number for you? Through the first 4 months of ‘08, we are trailing the ‘07 sales number by over 1,300 units. If this rate was applied to the entire year, than the Richmond area would experience a sold unit drop in single family homes in excess of 4,600 homes. Kinda explains why our inventory levels are so high, doesn’t it? For little more perspective, in ‘07 approximately 14,000 single family homes sold in the area. This ‘07 number was down 11 % from the 2006 number. Depressing, huh? But before I start passing the collection plate for myself, I will say that this decline will moderate as we progress through the year. The final 5 months of 2007 were pretty dismal and are comparable with the current sales numbers we are experiencing. So here’s my projection; I think we’ll finish ‘08 with about a 3,000 unit drop in homes sold. Bad, but certainly not the end of the world. My thought is sometime around the election, we’ll bottom and the market will start to improve. Stay tuned for more updates as we continue through the year. 
If you used just one word to describe the current real estate market in Richmond, the word would be "glutted". As of this morning, there were approximately 14,000 listings in the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service. One year ago that number was roughly 11,000. Two years ago, that number was about 9,000. Think about it ….. there’s a 50 % increase in the inventory level from 2 years ago when the Richmond real estate market first began to soften; and yet, Richmond is only seeing a moderate (one estimate I saw from Zillow was 1.8 % - 1st quarter ‘07 vs. 1st quarter ‘08) decline in sales price. Wait a minute, maybe I ought to change my one word for the Richmond real estate market to "resilient". 
After 24 plus years of selling real estate, there isn’t often when I am confronted with a new or different situation. Whenever I have one of these different occurrences, I like to rank or categorize it among my career experiences. You know, it’s like golf. Like the first time you break 80. Well, this brick ranch located in the Wildwood subdivision of central Henrico County (off Wilkinson Road west of Route 1), which I currently have for sale, has rearranged many of my real estate career rankings. Let me go through a list for you.
Saturday, my daughter and I spent the day at Kingsmill watching the LPGA Michelob Ultra Open. For an aspiring young golfer like my daughter, it couldn’t have been a better day despite the overcast and somewhat chilly weather. For me, I’d have to rank it as one of my best days, since how often does a dad get to spend the entire day alone and in the company of his teenage daughter?
I’ll comment in more detail on the Richmond Real Estate market later this week, but April sales reflected an improving market over any months in the first quarter of 2008. In addition, pending sales for April indicate an even stronger May. Here’s the breakdown for various localities within Greater Richmond. If you would like an area not covered below to be covered each month, please let me know. If the area has enough sales activity, I’ll be delighted to include it in this reporting.
Do you love ebay as much as I do? Do you proudly announce "I got it on ebay" when someone asks you where you got something? Do you marvel at how cheaply you got something on ebay despite often exorbitant shipping . Have you ever gone to say a retail outlet like Orvis to try on an item that you had no intention of buying just to make sure you had the size right? Do you anxiously await your ebay purchases and track their progress daily through UPS, USPS, or FedEx until they arrive at your door? Have you quit buying retail? 
Yesterday, I was finishing a monthly mailing I do. Normally, I have my wife proofread these things before I compile them, but I was running late this month so I forged ahead alone. MISTAKE. Yes, I had proofed it several times. Since I was convinced it was perfect, I began signing my letters, stuffing my envelopes, and applying my postage. About a third of the way through, there it was. An adverb made into an adjective with two little letters, ly.