Brick’s Blog

     I was in the first class at The University (i.e., UVA) that admitted undergraduate women. This was 1970. There were 200 women in that first class. By 1975, half of the admitted class each year were women.

     In what had been an all male bastion, you cannot imagine the attention these initial women received. Dating a U Chick was the ultimate status. In this select group, there were a couple of incredibly “desired” women who could immediate elevate one’s status to a true BMOC. Of course, as most beautiful women know, these women have the power; and need not waste their time on a lowly first yearman like myself. 

     One of these goddesses had dated a prep school classmate of mine and accepted a few dinner invitations from me. Of course, all my fraternity brothers knew I was just the “warm up act” for her senior varsity sport captain boyfriend who through the genorousity of moi was off the hook for dinner on those nights. I eventually got the clue and learned one of my great lesson about the fairer sex.

    Over last Christmas, I was at a debutanee party and was chatting with one of my classmates from Virginia whose oldest daughter was making her debut that year. He and I had been rivals for a girl in high school when we attended different prep schools. We vaguely knew each other before we found ourselves suitemates in Balz dormitory that first year at college. Over that year, we became friends, and while not fraternity brothers, we had numeorus mutual friends in each other’s fraternity house. Over the ensuing years, we peridocially reconnected with our most recent interaction being the Indian Princesses’ program of the YMCA when our daughters were in the same tribe. From that association, we now have monthly lunches with another dad who had daughters in that tribe.

     That evening at the party, my friend nonchalantly asked me if I’d remembered that U Chick goddess with whom I had had a few dates. With collegiate jocularity, and a fleeting embarassment over my lesson learned, I replied yes. My friend then shared a secret no woman could have kept over the past 35 plus years. It seems one summer during his undergraduate years, he received a letter from the “goddess.” He then asked me a question he could have asked me at any time earlier or at least 10 years earlier at any of the many Indian Princesses’ campouts we had attended together. Did I write that letter? Seems my buddy, all these years, had assumed it was written by me to just goof on him. 

     I hadn’t though about that night again until this week when we had our monthly lunch and I told this tale to the other dad in our group. Of course, he is now bound to us forever in the secrecy which is manhood. Naturally, our newest member asked if either of us had ever seen or enquired about the goddess again over the years. To which we both replied “why destroy the memory.” See as men, we know that the goddess could never be as hot or as good looking as we remember her to be. And that, my friends, is one of the many differences between men and women. 

     Tuesday, I received the Thanksgiving edition of the Brooks Brothers catalogue in the mail. I can’t remember when I transitioned from wearing a Gant button down to a Brooks one, but it must have been in the early 70’s when I worked for a brokerage firm and was in New York from time to time. At that time, there was a Brooks store at Wall and Broadway just a block from the New York Stock Exchange.

     I know my loyalty to Brooks had been cemented by the mid 70’s, because I remember going to Brooks Brothers trunk shows at the John Marshall Hotel, when I worked there. Before the internet, mall stores, outlet stores, and airport shops, when Brooks Brothers wanted to introduce their new lines, they did so with a trunk show. It was the Big Apple comes to the provinces. The Brooks representative would arrive with numerous trunks; and samples of the new line would be displayed in one of the parlor suites at the Marshall for the Brooks faithful. You get measured, place your order, and in a few weeks your new treads would arrive by mail in that wonderful Brooks box with the golden fleece logo on it.

     My love affair with Brooks Brothers has waned over the years. When you couldn’t get their causal button downs in anything but their generic sizes was probably one of my first disappointments. Boy, I use to have some great looking “weekend” shirts to wear with a blazer. Then when they dropped standard “yellow” from their traditional line of button downs was another killer. How many white and blue shirts can you have? And what is ecru? And more significantly, what other colored shirt should you wear with a tan camelhair jacket? Yet, there are certain things I will always buy from Brooks -shirts, underwear and socks.

     The catalogue I got Tuesday from Brooks was filled with some great looking dress shirts. Besides the solid colors, there were tattersalls, bengal stripes, mini pinstripe, houndstooth, and even end on end shadow grid whatever that is. Surely, with all this choices, there must be something for me. Nope, while I liked many things, all the shirts came in a “non iron” fabric. Oh no, has J Crew replaced Brooks as the only purveyor of “non treated” cotton? And since I can’t afford Ben Silver, what’s a guy to do?

     I am not so sure it’s causal Friday that has been the demise of “non treated” fabrics. When it cost $2 to get a shirt laundered and starched, one starts to question his wardrobe choices. Ever tried to iron a shirt? How about properly starch one? If you have, then you know $2 is really a bargain for this service, even though after a year’s worth of laundering, you spent more on the cleaning than you originally spent for the shirt.

     Anyway, I guess l’ll continue to sacrifice elsewhere in order to wear my ”non treated”, other than starch, shirt. For me, there’s nothing like having that stiff collar, crisp cuffs, and ironing board flat front you get with a starched shirt. Oh, by the way, I just found a new cleaner to do my shirts for $1.45. Well, that’s what he quoted me before I took my shirts to him to launder. Once he found out I wanted starch, he added a nickel. As Rick says to Captain Renault at the end of Casablanca “Louie, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.” 

      Last Thursday, I probably made my last purchase at Circuit City. I would have made this purchase on Wednesday, but the selection I had chosen under their ready in 24 minutes program wasn’t in the store I had chosen, even though I chose a store outside of my immediate area just to get the item I wanted. It was fortunate that I got the call about the item not being in stock before I left for the out of the way Circuit City store or I would have bought the item at Best Buy. Not because I am disloyal to Circuit City, but because it would have simply become a matter of convenience if I was already on the errand to pick up the item.

      Seeing Circuit City headed to the ash heap of retailers is sad for me. There was a time I could do the majority of my non grocery/non clothes shopping in the immediate vicinity of Staples Mill Road and Westmoreland Street. At that time, Circuit City’s original HUGE box platform was located at the junction of Westmoreland Street and Thalbro Streets, while a few blocks away at Staples Mill and Marshall was the original prototype for a Best Products’ store. It always felt good and was a matter of local pride to spend your Richmond earned dollar with these 2 innovative Richmond based retailers.

 

     Entering the recently downsized, smaller and leaner Circuit City store located at Broad and Gaskins, I felt like a dead man walking the gallows for retailers. When I entered, I was met by a greeter, which made me reflect “how Walmart.” Of course, I would have like the greeter if I could have heard her, but the music was jacked so loud I wondered if I hadn’t entered Abercombie and Fitch by mistake. After picking up my item, I was directed back towards the front of the store to make my purchase, except I was sidelined along the way by someone offering to “ring me out” at one of the department point of sale registers. I use to love that you could pay for your item in the department you purchased the item at Circuit City. Only problem today was this particular clerk wasn’t able to sign in to the registers, so I was redirected back towards the main cashiers at the front of the store. There I was met by 2 cashiers with headsets on who were jabbering away with someone. I was never sure if it was a customer ringing in or a personal call they were on. Oh, Circuit City, how did you lose your way so badly?

 

     In years to come, I’ll bet that Circuit City is a case study in all business schools. How it rose from a local appliance store to national force will documented, dissected and discussed. Where it went wrong will be hotly debated. Let me save them all some time, just ask any Richmonder and they can tell you. It’s when they stopped selling appliances. We’ll miss you Ward’s!

 

     Oh, that street, Thalbro, where the Circuit City was located. It’s short for Thalhimer Brothers and that’s another retail story for another date. 

     Let’s see. About mid September, Treasury Secretary Paulson announces the financial markets need 750 billion for a bailout. It takes until October 3rd to enact a pork laden bill for this rescue. The following week the Dow Jones loses 22 % of its value. Boy, the Richmond real estate market must really be in the tank. Think again, Einstein. Despite 6 weeks of financial chaos, October sales for ‘08 were only down 22 % when compared with October ‘07. And considering for all of ‘08, we’ve been running at about a 30 % plus decline versus ‘07, there should be dancing in the streets. With October ‘08 numbers now in, the decline for the year is now at 29 %.

     Sure, there have been 3,000 plus less sales so far this year when compared to ‘07, but Richmond has a vibrant market when compared with other parts of the country. If you look at the numbers below, percentage of sales at the various price ranges are literally unchanged. There are just less sales, not NO sales.

     This is the best move-up market in Richmond that I have ever seen in my 20 plus year real estate career. If you can sell your existing home, there are BARGAINS to be had. Ditto for the real estate investment market. There are true STEALS with cash flows and upside appreciation you won’t believe. And the condition of these foreclosures…. it ain’t like the old days. Opportunities galore with little to no work needed. Call me, let me show you what I mean. And if tax increases are truly on the horizon, then you need to discover the beauty of depreciation.

Here’s the year to date ‘07 & ‘08 comparison.  

October YTD		2008				2007
Price Range		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 – 99,999		377		4.84%		450		4.27%
100,000 – 199,999		2148		28.50%		3,001		28.47%
200,000 – 299,999		2576		34.75%		3,591		34.06%
300,000 – 399,999		1194		16.08%		1,748		16.58%
400,000 – 499,999		518		7.15%		796		7.55%
500,000 – 599,999		258		3.39%		368		3.49%
600,000 – 699,999		142		1.96%		225		2.13%
700,000 – 799,999		85		1.17%		132		1.25%
800,000 – 899,999		53		0.77%		83		0.79%
900,000 – 999,999		22		0.29%		51		0.48%
1 Million plus		79		1.10%		97		0.92%
Total Sales/Pct.		7452		100.00%		10542		100.00%

     When I started to compile this information for October, I initially had a horrific sinking feeling as each market segment of this report had a significant drop in the number of sales. Now that I begin to compose my thoughts and can reflect back on October, I can only say ”the Richmond real estate market is INCREDIBLE.” Talk about resilient. Yes, we had about 20 % less sales than the preceding month, but that we had any sales is just amazing. Remember the daily whipsaw of the Dow? How about every news report drawing comparisons to the Great Depression? Was it possible to hear any worst news? I’ll have more to say as the week progresses, but here’s the quick look at October’s sales.

For the 14 single family homes sold in

Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond

(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)

Average Sales Price in October $ 327,796

Median Sales Price ……………   $ 295,500

Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 95.9 %

Days on Market …………………….. 39

Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 1,873 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….$ 175.01

 

For the 19 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond

(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)

Average Sales Price in October $ 393,615

Median Price ………………………  $ 316,250

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 97.0 %

Days on Market ……………………. 39

Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,163 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……..   $ 181.98

 

For the 47 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County

(Zips 23226, 23229, 23230, 23233, 23238)

Average Sales Price in October $ 319,460

Median Sales Price ……………    $ 272,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……….  95.2 %

Days on Market …………………….    65

Average Size 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,265 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ………. $ 141.04

 

For the 60 single family homes sold in Chesterfield

(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)

Average Sales Price for October $ 263,327

Median Sales Price …………… $ 230,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……..  97.3 %

Average Days on Market……………. 72

Average Size 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,274 square ft

Average $ per square foot ………..$ 115.80

 

For the 39 single family homes sold in Glen Allen

(Zips 23059 and 23060)

Average Sales Price for October $ 327,309

Median Sales Price………………  $ 282,500

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………  97.5 %

Average Days on Market ………….  63

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,464 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……… $ 132.84

 

For the 42 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville

(Zips 23111 and 23116)

Average Sales Price for October $ 337,483

Median Price ……………………     $ 263,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 97.7 %

Average Days on Market ………….. 55

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 2,336 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 144.47

 

For 85 single family homes sold in Midlothian

(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)

Average Sales Price for October $ 299,560

Median Price ……………………..   $ 269,000

Sales Price List Price Ratio …….    97.8 %

Average Days on Market …………..  77

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,395 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……….. $ 125.08

 If you would like an area not covered above to be included each month, please let me know. If the area has enough sales activity, I’ll be delighted to include it in this reporting.

     Tuesday, my son, Stuart, voted in his first presidential election. Since he’s nineteen, I am sure most of you would think that we cancelled each other out at the poll. Not so, his politics are just to the right of Genghis Khan, so much so that his “vanity” license plate reads G3NGHIS. Personally, I am little confused by his politics, since I feel he is more of redistributionist, especially when it comes to his parent’s wealth. Well, he did personally pay for that “vanity” plate, even though reminders of who provides the insurance, gasoline, vehicle repairs and even the vehicle itself are often lost on him. 

     This summer Stuart interned for the Republican Party of Virginia in order “to combat the forces of evil” as he wrote when he thanked one of the references in his internship application. Monday, although under the weather, he attended school in order to finish a presidential debate in his government class which had been suspended from Friday. I don’t need to tell you which candidate he backed.

     With the wonderful idealism that is youth, Stuart began Tuesday night euphoric. When Virginia didn’t immediately turn “blue”, he was convinced that McCain, like Bret Maverick, would draw his inside straight. As the night progressed, his anger and disappointment increased fueled by several Red Bulls. When Ohio and Pennsylvania went Obama, I knew it was over and offered Stuart some perspective reminding him that Carter gave us Reagan and went to bed.

     Wednesday morning,  when Stuart hadn’t gotten up to depart for school, I went to his room to find out why. I was quickly informed that he wasn’t going to school and he had spent the night arguing online with some a…hole at George Mason who doesn’t understand s..t. Both Mary Stuart and I knew we weren’t going to win this argument and relented about school, since hadn’t we voted for the candidate we felt had the strongest convictions.

     When I had gotten up Wednesday, I found one of Stuart’s McCain yard signs on the kitchen floor. I had just assumed he had accepted the outcome and removed them from our yard. As I was pulling out of our driveway to head to work, I noticed a handmade sign in our front yard. It was one of Stuart’s McCain signs turned inside out. Its hand scrawled message read “the democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. – Thomas Jefferson.”

     Attaboy, Stu, fight the good fight. It’s moments like this that make me proud of you.    

     Now that the election is over; and with it I am sure an improvement in our news cycle, let’s not forget the incredible opportunities currently available in the local housing market. Here are some quick thoughts on why it’s a great time to buy:

1.) Richmond’s economy remains strong.

2.) There is a significant imbalance between supply (properties listed for sale) and demand (buyers in the market).

3.) Time of year. Historically, beginning at Thanksgiving and extending to the Spring, there is less activity in the market. Sellers are anxious when confronted with carrying a property through the Winter.

4.) Rates are incredible and due to sluggishness of the economy should remain low.

5.) Effective January 1st, FHA is raising it’s down payment requirement.

6.) Builders who want to survive to build another day are highly motivated and negotiable.

7.) Relocation companies need to trim their inventories, too. 

8.) Bank owed real estate (REO’s or foreclosures) is being deeply discounted. The quicker these “toxic” assets are off their books the faster the housing recovery.

9.) If you’re moving up in your housing, your $200,000 home might require a 10 % discount to sell. Sorry, you out $20,000, but the $400,000 home you buy can probably be bought with 10 % discount, so that’s $40,000 savings. You just made $20,000.

10.) Again, for those moving up, when the market turns, your more valuable asset will yield more $$$.

11.) And the best reason to buy now……You get to work with me. Call me, 804.301.7598; and let’s go buy a house.

     I have just returned from the polls. I arrived at the polls prior to 6 a.m. with the thought there would be few people that early. I live in a very Republican district in an affluent area where folks can vote at their leisure. I was greeted this morning with a line of over 100 people already waiting.

     On my way in from the parking lot, I surveyed the vehicles looking for party affiliations via bumper stickers. None of the cars had any political bumper stickers. Throughout the Fall, I have felt that Republican political yard signs were far fewer than in 2000 and 2004. During this racially charged campaign, I believe most people’s true beliefs have not be worn on their sleeves, much less displayed in their yards or on their automobiles. Call me a Pollyanna, but I think Virginia will defy the polls and a silent majority will vote for McCain.    

    When I leave work later today, I will probably be coming home in the dark. Once daylight savings time ends, my ennui sets in. Nothing is more depressing than having the days grow shorter each day until the Winter Solstice. I’d like to skip the next 58 days or so and I find myself at December 21st. At least once there, while I’ll still be leaving work in the dark; I’ll have the comfort of knowing the days are getting longer and Spring cannot be far away. 

     Don’t think my thoughts are all dark this time of year. I do like that the elementary school children will no longer be waiting in the dark for their school buses. Yet that only makes me wonder why the little children go to school so early,  while the High Schoolers sleep in. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the older children to go early and therefore get out earlier? Then the high schoolers could get their athletic commitments over earlier, or go to the part time jobs sooner and earn more money, or maybe just have more evening time to study. Just asking.

     Wouldn’t it be great if you could just hibernate until Spring?

The Northern Neck

 

Between the yellow Rappahannock

And the broad Potomac blue

There’s a lovely bit of country

Down in old Virginia true.

 

Just a narrow strip of inland

On the map it’s scarce a speck,

But it’s Home to everybody

In the good old Northern Neck.

 

You go sixty miles from nowhere

Down a winding country road,

Past a picturesque old mill pond,

And a patriot’s first abode.

 

Yes, it’s rather isolated

But I know when you reflect

You will surely want to linger

In the good old Northern Neck.

 

You’ll find many stately mansions

Of the true Colonial style

Tucked behind old-fashioned gardens

Filled with flowers all the while.

 

River views, with steamboat landings,

Everything you could expect

Of Virginia’s rich tradition

In the good old Northern Neck.

 

The folks have got a charming way

Of saying, “Come right in.”

There’s smoke cured ham and batter-bread

With potatoes in the bin.

 

The people still believe in God,

And home is not a wreck.

And everybody’s “Kith and kin”

In the good old Northern Neck.

 

Sure, I’ve heard them sing of Heaven

Guess ‘twas never meant for me.

But sometimes I stop and wonder

How the next world’s going to be.

 

But St. Peter needn’t work

When I’m cashing in my check,

For my soul will stay forever,

In the good old Northern Neck.

 

                        James S. Allen

 

Warsaw, Virginia, July 20, 1925

 

Nothing that I could possibly add to this.