Brick’s Blog

      Why is it that every buyer I currently have is only interested in a “short” sale? Has there ever been a bigger real estate misnomer than a “short” sale? Shouldn’t these sales be called “longest sale in history provided I can even get a response to my offer” sales.  Here’s what I would I like to see happen with short sales.

     First, when you enter the property photo in MLS, you enter the photo upside down. This would immediately notify everyone that the seller is upside down in their mortgage. Second, the listing agent signs an affidavit, which is entered as an attachment to the listing that states the seller actually meets all three necessary conditions of a short sale – insolvency, monthly shortfall and hardship. Owning more on the property than it will sell for does not solely qualify you for a short sale.  Are you agents listening? Third, if the seller has both a 1st and a 2nd mortgage, it be clearly stated so in the agent comments so I can know to avoid this property like the plague. Well, that’s my thoughts for the day on short sales. Hey, agents, have you got any additional comments?

     I’ve got this great little booklet, which completely explains the $8,000 Tax Credit for Home Buyers. If you’d like a copy, please click on this link and I’ll send you a copy.

     Boy, I’ve been slow to post this final installment. My apologies but I have been under the weather for a few days and just getting back on stride. Here’s the last part of the 3 year history and this applies to Zone 34 or what I call the “new” west end. Zone 34 is a sprawling area north of I-64 and Parham Road  to the Chickahominy/Henrico County line back eastward to where Parham Road and Chickahominy River meet Route 301. The good news is that 1-295 transverses this massive zone for a easy transition to other areas. 

   Of the 3 zones that comprise the West End, Zone 32 has been hit the hardest over the last 3 years. ‘09 unit sales versus ‘07 unit sales are down over 52 % with ‘09 sales down 34 % from ‘08 levels. While the two year number is only slightly higher than Zone 20’s and Zone 22’s number, the one year drop is almost 10 percentage points higher than both Zone 20 and Zone 22. Affordability hampers Zone 34, too. Whereas 76 % of the sales in the metro area in ‘09 are at price points below $300,000, only 59 % of the sales in Zone 34 are below $300,000. And oh, how the mighty have fallen. In ‘07 and ‘08, only 49 % of the sales each year were below $300,000 for Zone 34 when the metro market was experiencing 68 % and 70 %, respectively, at that threshold. Anyway, here’s the chart!

     Today we’re going to look at homes sales year to date through May over the last 3 years in the West End of Henrico. This is for Zone 22 which I refer to as “West End of the County”. Zone 22 begins on the east at the City of Richmond line, extends north to I-64, is bounded by the James River on the south and ends at the Henrico line on the west. The appeal of this area has always been its awarding winning schools and lower taxes.

     Like Zone 20 last week, the absence of million dollar sales this year is glaring. The West End of the County is also exhibiting the same trend as the West End of the City with a 50 % decrease in unit sales from ‘07. The drop of unit sales of only 21 % from ‘08 is better than what was seen in Zone 20.  Affordability is also better in Zone 22 as compared with Zone 20. Whereas, the sales under $300,000 for the metro area to date are 76 %, in the West End of the County it has been 68 %.  These metro numbers for under $300,000 sales in ‘08 and ‘07 were 68 % and 70 %, respectively. In Zone 22, these West End County numbers were 63 % in ‘08 and 60 % in ‘07.

    Tomorrow we’re off to Zone 34 for our final installment.

     What I thought was would be a single post has morphed into an 3 part installment. Earlier this week, I mentioned I would post a 3 year camparison of home sales for the West End. Since “my West End” is composed of three different zones (i.e., 20, 22 & 34) used by the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (i.e., CVRMLS) to delineate these areas, this first installment will cover Zone 20 or what I refer to as the “West End City.”

     Whenever I start to work with a new buyer who is “looking” in the West End, my first question is “what do you consider the West End?”. My reason for this is simple. The west directional for streets in Richmond starts at Foushee Street. Say what? Foushee, where’s that? Foushee Street is a block east of the Jefferson Hotel and well east of Belvidere. Not exactly what you would consider the West End, now is it?

     Zone 20 used by CVRMLS begins west of the beltline (i.e., Route 195) and extends west to the Henrico County Line. It is bounded on the north by the City of Richmond line, which basically runs along Broad Street until Staples Mill and then follows Monument Avenue until west of Libbie when Patterson becomes the northern boundary. The south boundary is the James River. Despite its higher taxes and weaker schools than its Henrico counterparts, Zone 20 has always been considered a highly desirable area due to its proximity to downtown and other drawing features of the City of Richmond.

     Now let’s take a look at the West End City market over the last few years. One of the most immediate things you will notice is the drop in million dollar sales. Goochland and Zone 20 have always had the majority of million dollar sales each year. Through May, ‘09 is lagging both ‘08 and ‘07.  Just as in the metro area at large, ‘09 unit sales in Zone 20 are lagging ‘07 sales by just over 50 % and ‘08 sales by 24 %, but these numbers are higher than the metro area. This is due mostly to affordability. Whereas, the sales activity below $300,000 for the metro area to date in ‘09 is 76 %, in ‘08 68 % and in ‘07 70%, only 52 % of the ‘09 sales in Zone 20 are below in $300,000. In ‘08, the below $300,000 percentage was 42 % and in ‘07 was 41 %. Anyway, here are the numbers. Read ‘em and weep.

     Tomorrow I’ll take a look at Zone 22 – West End County.

     May saw a BIG jump in the number of sales in the West End from their April counterpart. We also started to see some activity at above the $400,000 price point which is encouraging. With the next few days, I should be posting a comparison on the last 3 years for sales in the West End at the variuos price points. This should be good proof of how bottom driven this market is. Here are May numbers for Zones 20, 22, and 34.

     Hooray!!!! Guess what? Well, now 2009 year to date unit sales only trail 2007 sales by 49.6 %. Nice to be under to 50 % bracket. ‘09 year to date unit sales are now lagging ‘08 sales by 23 %. Are you doing a jig yet? May also marked a sharp increase in unit sales over the April with a 24 % jump in units sold. The May month to month numbers show ‘09 lagging ’08 by 13 % with ‘09 trailing ‘07 by 44 %. Certainly the short term trend is showing increasing sales, but this trend could become short lived with recent spike in interest rates. Here are the 3 year numbers.