Brick’s Blog

     Sunday, I was in the best mood all day; and it all started at church. No, it wasn’t from some inspirational words imparted in the sermon, although the sermon was good. And it wasn’t some particular hymn that leaves you humming it all week until it is substituted by a better one the following Sunday. No, my euphoric mood was created by one of our youngest parishioners, who cooed his way through the entire service. Oh, what a delightful sound.

    And just so I wasn’t lulled into dreaming that I was on one of the best dove hunts of all time, my little friend punctuated his perpetual coo with selective and joyful babbling to remind us all who was truly at peace in the congregation.  After the service, I sought out my new little friend’s mother to thank her for my serenity. She was somewhat embarrassed and immediately commented that he had been so much better last week. Seeing a friend of mine who sat beside my little friend and his mother during the service, I solicited her opinion and she validated for me and the mother what a peaceful experience it had all been.  It really is the simple things in life that often provide the most pleasure. I’ll be looking for my little friend this Sunday.

      I am gearing up to stuff myself at Thanksgiving. How about you? My picks this week aren’t STEALS, but they’re good solid buys, which I think can be picked off at a good price. We are entering that historical time (Thanksgiving to the New Year) when things are very slow. Great time to pick off some bargains.

 You won’t believe it? I stumped y’all again on last week’s “Hollywood” guest. It was Robert Redford as Sonny Steele in The Electric Horseman. Com’ on now let’s have a winner this week. You need the actor, the role, and the movie to win the Starbucks card.

      Here’s this week’s episode of Foreclosure Friday Flash for November 20, 2009:

     Yesterday, while I was finishing this week’s video, I was getting loads of updates on “new” bank owned inventory. There were many addresses that looked of interest, which I’ll look at today and tomorrow. Call me, if you want to know if there’s anything great that’s just come on the market.

    If you’re interested in receiving Bank Owned Weekly, then click on the appropriate link – West End, Glen Allen, or Midlothian.

     My old buddy, Webbie, sure is getting the hang of being a senator who is responsive to his constituents. Whenever I contact our senators, I send them identical e-mails. Ah, the efficiency of cut and paste. Once again Webb’s response was received before any from Warner, which is a pleasant development from earlier this year. Check it out here.  

     Webbie’s recent reply was to my e-mail sent Sunday morning after the House passed their so-called healthcare reform bill. Once again Jim proved he’s the hardest working man in the U.S. Senate, since the time stamp on his e-mail carried 9:50 p.m. last evening. Jim, please go be with your family. Oh, wait a minute, you guys only work 3 days (Tuesday – Thursday); maybe it’s good if you really did burn some midnight oil.  

     Clown Boy’s response ran almost 500 words. I didn’t read it all at first because initially I didn’t get passed the 2^nd paragraph which reads as follows:

“For this reason, I joined seven of my Senate colleagues in urging that legislative text and cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office be posted for public viewing at least 72 hours before the measure is debated or voted on in the full Senate.  This will allow our constituents to evaluate the proposal in detail and make their views known.  It is important for us to be very deliberate on an issue of such importance to the lives of so many Americans.”

      Let me just go through these 3 sentences to explain why it took some Coleridgian “suspension of disbelief” to read the rest of Webb’s response.

 1.)    Wow, Jim, 8 of our 100 senators want the legislative text and COB’s estimates posted for public viewing 72 hours before debate or vote on the legislation. Way to put together a huge 12 % coalition of your colleagues. What about the other 92 clowns?

2.)    Where did this 72 hour viewing period come from? 3 days to voice an opinion? What if I lived in California and wanted to “write” a letter to Senator Boxer or Feinstein. Can you guarantee the U.S. Postal Service could deliver a 1^st class letter in that 3 day period?

3.)    It really is nice that your constituents are being “allowed” to “evaluate” this proposal in detail. If I remember correctly, the Baucus senate version of the healthcare bill runs some 1,500 pages. Thanks, Jim, for getting 3 whole days for the common man to wade through 1,500 pages of legalese.

4.)    “It is important for us to be very deliberate on an issue of such importance…” No kidding, Clown Boy, but 3 days is deliberate? Hey, if you haven’t noticed, Obama is approaching 11 weeks in his deliberation on troop levels in Afghanistan. You and your imperial colleagues might consider holding some Town Halls with your constituents.

      Oh, I could rant on, but I’ve vented; so I feel better. Thanks for reading.

     Started that ark yet? As always, I’ve got 2 fabulous picks this week. One is condo out by Innsbrook and the other is an equestrian paradise – that is if you ride Western.

     Can you believe it? No one correctly identified last week’s “Hollywood” guest. Many knew it was Clint Eastwood as “Dirty Harry” Callahan, but no one got the movie right. “Make my day” is from Sudden Impact.

     Here’s this week’s episode of Foreclosure Friday Flash for November 13, 2009.

     Hey, and with the shorter days, one of the best ways to get up to speed on Bank Owned Homes is by attending the Saturday Morning Tour of Bank Owned Properties; Register here.

      I’m in town this weekend and just itching to show you anything YOU want to see. Plus I’d loved to write some contracts!!!!!

     And I’m expecting a winner in my “Hollywood” contest this week. Remember you need to identify the actor, the role and the MOVIE.

     If you’re interested in receiving Bank Owned Weekly, then click on the appropriate link – West End, Glen Allen, or Midlothian.

     Yesterday, I commented on the encouraging news that October marked the first month to month comparison in 2 years where the current October sales exceeded the previous 2 years.  In looking at the submarket of the West End, there are also some insights to be gleaned. West End sales represent slightly over 20 % of the total area sales. Unlike the overall market where over 75 % of sale activity occurs under the $300,000 mark, the West End, due to its desirability, has more sales at price ranges above the $300,000 than other areas. Yet this is a two edged sword, since the West End has also experienced the greatest drop in high end sales. Nowhere is this better revealed than in the million dollar sales. In ‘07, there were 111 million dollar sales in the Richmond area. 75 or 67.5 % of these sales were in the West End. In ‘08, million dollar sales had dropped some 20 % to 88, yet the West End still had 46 or 52.3 % of the total. With only 2 months to go in ‘09, there have only been 29 million dollar sales in the Richmond area with 11 or 37.9 % of the total being in the West End.  Anyway, here are the sales in the West End for October and year to date.

      OMG, is there a pattern emerging? While we certainly aren’t doing the dollar volume of past years, October ‘09 marked the first time in 2 years that the month to month comparisons show ‘09 unit sales exceeding both ‘08 and ‘07. October ‘09 clipped October ‘08 by some 42 % – did you get that? Now this humongous increase might be like shooting fish in a barrel, since a year ago we were in the throes of the financial meltdown; but you need to remember that closed sales in a month are typical instigated 45-60 days prior to recordation. And October ‘09 versus October ‘07 – why ‘09 came in 10% ahead of ‘07. Okay, Brick, but a month doesn’t make a year. No question about it, but year to date ‘09 trails ‘08 by less than 8 % and ‘09 continues to narrow the gap with ‘07 with deficit now down to less than 35 % of  ‘07 unit sales. Again, I need to remind you that my numbers are based on units sold. Yes, we are starting to sell more units, but they are lower price points.

     For you number junkies, here are the charts:

     Well, I guess I won’t have to wonder how much sales will fall off once the $8,000 Tax Credit for “First Time” Homebuyers expires until next Spring. In case you haven’t heard, the credit was extended through April 30, 2010.  Congress in their typical largesse also threw something in for the “step up” buyer with a $6,500 credit for current owners. If you want some specifics on this new twist, please contact me.

     October sales, I think, are indicative of why the credit got extended. While the number of sales for October was slightly higher than September, the majority of these sales also took place at price points below September’s marks.  Over 80 % of October sales occurred at a price point below $300,000. We have flirted with this 80 % mark several times this year, but October’s 81.37 % blew through the old ‘09 mark of 79.36% established in January. In January this year, we had just over 400 total sales, while in October we had just under 800 total sales; so there is no question that the “sweet spot” in the market is under the $300,000 price point. I’ll have more to say on the market later this week, when I publish my West End comparisons.

Here’s the snapshot:

For the 17 single family homes sold in
Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond
(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)
Average Sales Price in October $ 293,011
Median Sales Price …………… $ 280,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 95 %
Days on Market …………………….. 57
Months of Inventory ………….. 6.9
Average Size 3 bedrooms 1.5 baths of 2,152 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….$ 147.68

For the 30 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond
(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)
Average Sales Price in October $ 317,312
Median Price ……………………… $ 261,750
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 96 %
Days on Market ……………………. 70
Months of Inventory ………….. 3.7
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,892 sq ft
Average $ per square foot…….. $ 167.76

For the 5 homes sold on the Northside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23227 Holton School District)
Average Sales Price in October $ 229,200
Median Price ……………………… $ 232,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 93 %
Days on Market ……………………. 78
Months of Inventory …………. 9.6
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths of 1,682 sq ft
Average $ per square foot…….. $ 147.67

For the 26 homes sold on the Southside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23225)
Average Sales Price in October $ 177,550
Median Price ……………………… $ 163,475
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 97 %
Days on Market ……………………. 62
Months of Inventory …………. 7.1
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths of 1,468 sq ft
Average $ per square foot…….. $ 123.94

For the 88 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County
(Zips 23226, 23229, 23230, 23233, 23238)
Average Sales Price in October $ 275,367
Median Sales Price …………… $ 250,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………. 97 %
Days on Market ……………………. 65
Months of Inventory …………. 4.8
Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,057 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ………. $ 135.17

For the 88 single family homes sold in Chesterfield
(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)
Average Sales Price for October $ 228,795
Median Sales Price …………… $ 206,617
Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 97 %
Average Days on Market……………. 80
Months of Inventory …………….. 11.7
Average Size 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,127 square ft
Average $ per square foot ………..$ 110.12

For the 49 single family homes sold in Glen Allen
(Zips 23059 and 23060)
Average Sales Price for October $ 284,020
Median Sales Price……………… $ 245,650
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 96 %
Average Days on Market …………. 61
Months of Inventory …………… 8.4
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,312 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……… $ 126.44

For the 67 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville
(Zips 23111 and 23116)
Average Sales Price for October $ 254,905
Median Price …………………… $ 240,500
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 97 %
Average Days on Market ………….. 71
Months of Inventory …………… 6.8
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 2,105 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 125.03

For 82 single family homes sold in Midlothian
(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)
Average Sales Price for October $ 264,801
Median Price …………………….. $ 221,500
Sales Price List Price Ratio ……. 97 %
Average Days on Market ………….. 56
Months of Inventory ……………. 7.5
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,250 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……….. $ 117.76

     I’ve got 2 great picks this week. One is a townhouse on Jahnke Road just down the street from CJW Hospital. The 2nd is a West End property that is getting in the “kill” zone. What I mean by the “kill” zone is a property that has been on the market for at least 60 days, has had a couple of price reductions, and will attract a ton of activity with the next price reduction. See for yourself with this week’s episode of  Foreclosure Friday Flash. Don’t forget my Hollywood contest – name the actor, role, and movie – and win a Starbucks gift card. Congrats to last week’s winner, Kimberly Spencer.

     If you’re interested in receiving Bank Owned Weekly, then click on the appropriate link – West End, Glen Allen, or Midlothian.