Brick’s Blog

     Last night after finishing our Christmas Eve dinner, we were still seated at the dining room table playing Table Topics. One of the topics elicited the comment from me that “I thought this country was getting ready to have the greatest swing to the right it has ever seen.” Of course, this is my hope; no, it is my prayer that this great country founded on Judeo Christian values will return to those values so wisely utilized by our Founding Fathers.  This morning, while enjoying the peace of Christmas morning that can only be realized when one has almost grown children, I was reading some of my conservative blogs and found this Christmas address from Ronald Reagan.  Reagan gave this address exactly at the same point in his first term as Obama is now. Let’s see; Obama gives us healthcare reform that all the Democrats say “we’ll love” once we learn more about it despite the American people saying “no”; and then flies off to Hawaii. The Gipper gives us “the hope that is America”. (This Reagan address also covered the plight of the Polish people against the Soviets and America’s determination to support them. Might be a message Obama might give to the Afghans, Iraqis and Iranians. I have edited this just for the Christmas message.)

     Anyway, here’s my Christmas wishes courtesy of the The Great Communicator, Ronald Wilson Reagan.

Reagan’s Christmas Address:

     Here’s a laugher. This was a press release from January 18, 2006:

          Democrats from across the country today unveiled their Honest Leadership and Open Government Act. In the Great Hall of the Library of Congress, Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, were joined by Senator Barack Obama and Congresswoman Louise Slaughter and their Senate and House colleagues to shine a spotlight on the Republican “pay for play” politics that put special interests first at the expense of the priorities of the American people and signed a pledge to restore honest leadership and open government.

     Hey, but that was almost 4 years ago. That’s ancient history. Besides Obama wasn’t even President then; I know, so you’ll love this one. And I’ve even got a “talkie” for you. Here’s the back story:

On January 21, 2009, his first full day in office, the President issued a Memorandum on Transparency and Open Government and called for recommendations for making the Federal government more transparent, participatory, and collaborative.

On May 21, 2009, the Administration kicked off an unprecedented process for public engagement in policymaking on the White House website. As Valerie Jarrett, Senior Advisor to the President said, we are proud to announce an important next step in this historic call to action one that will help us achieve a new foundation for our government a foundation built on the values of transparency, accountability and responsibility.

And now for the talkie:

Valerie Jarrett on Open Government

     Gosh, I thought I had been making my opinions known. And by the polls, it looks like the American public has been making their opinion known on healthcare “reform”. I guess I didn’t get the memo on the Era of Open Government being over.

     As Washington gets more tone deaf to the country, I find myself e-mailing our 2 Senators several times a week. I’ve commented before on how easy I find their contact pages, since the contact program “autofills” your personal information from prior contacts. Of course, my wife, has jokingly remarked that it makes it easier for the “authorities” to come find me when they need to.  Please don’t think I am opposed to healthcare reform. There was a time when my premiums were over $2,500 @ month with a $10,000 deductible.  Chew on those numbers for awhile for someone self-employed. Reform is drastically needed, but what is advancing through the Senate and already passed by the House of Representatives isn’t the answer. Below is an example of this morning’s love note to my Senators.

If I can believe the accounts in the media, a vote on the Senate’s version of healthcare “reform” is slated for within the week. Yet, you have no legislative text for what you may be voting on. You have no cost analysis of what you may be voting one. Let’s see; it’s okay for President Obama to take almost 11 months to make a decision on Afghanistan, because that was a measured, studied, and informed course of action. Now the Senate is ready to vote on a measure, which accounts for almost 20 % of our economy not knowing what the legislation calls for or costs. This is not the Christmas present the country wants. Country, before party.  

Merry Christmas to All! This is the last episode of Foreclosure Friday Flash for 2009, but The Flash will resume on New Year’s Day. If you’re interested in receiving Bank Owned Weekly, then click on the appropriate link – West End, Glen Allen, or Midlothian.

     As we go further into the year, the absence of competitive jumbo mortgage money rates really reveals itself. How else could you explain the dearth of upper end sales in the ever fashionable West End in the graph below? As you well know, any conventional loan above $417,000 is considered a “jumbo” loan. Although the FHA maximum loan limit for our area is $535,900, due to mortgage insurance requirements for FHA loans, a FHA loan used as jumbos need to be properly structured in the initial offer. Did the West End, Richmond or the country in general lose all its high end earners? What no doctors, no lawyers, no Indian chiefs? Did these folks’ credit suddenly fall off the table. Did they lose all their other assets? On a risk basis compared to other borrowers are these folks worse loan candidates? Maybe Obamacare (doctors) and Barney Frank CEO compensation legislation (Indian chiefs) are forego conclusions. And since tort reform can’t gain any ground anywhere, I think I’ll go look for some attorney clients. Anyway here are the numbers for the West End in November and year to date.  

November		Zone 20				Zone 22				Zone 34
Price Range		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 – 99,999		0		0.00%		1		1.12%		1		3.51%
100,000 – 199,999		7		38.89%		21		25.84%		11		31.58%
200,000 – 299,999		5		27.78%		27		44.94%		24		40.35%
300,000 – 399,999		2		11.11%		7		17.98%		18		10.52%
400,000 – 499,999		3		16.67%		0		4.49%		8		7.02%
500,000 – 599,999		1		5.56%		0		1.12%		3		7.02%
600,000 – 699,999		0		0.00%		4		2.25%		0		0.00%
700,000 – 799,999		0		0.00%		3		2.25%		0		0.00%
800,000 – 899,999		0		0.00%		1		0.00%		1		0.00%
900,000 – 999,999		0		0.00%		0		0.00%		0		0.00%
1 Million plus		0		0.00%		0		0.00%		0		0.00%
Total Sales/Pct.		18		100.00%		64		100.00%		66		100.00%
YTD thru November		Zone 20				Zone 22				Zone 34
\		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 – 99,999		2		0.91%		5		0.68%		7		1.10%
100,000 – 199,999		21		6.36%		165		22.57%		129		20.19%
200,000 – 299,999		111		48.18%		313		42.82%		242		37.87%
300,000 – 399,999		39		16.82%		116		15.87%		124		19.41%
400,000 – 499,999		31		12.73%		49		6.70%		74		11.58%
500,000 – 599,999		17		7.27%		29		3.97%		46		7.20%
600,000 – 699,999		5		2.27%		27		3.69%		7		1.10%
700,000 – 799,999		2		0.91%		14		1.92%		5		0.78%
800,000 – 899,999		2		0.91%		9		1.23%		1		0.16%
900,000 – 999,999		2		0.91%		1		0.14%		2		0.31%
1 Million plus		6		2.73%		3		0.41%		2		0.31%
Total Sales/Pct.		238		100.00%		731		100.00%		639		100.00%

     Just 2 weeks to Christmas! I am expecting ashes and switches, how about you? I know I sound like a broken record, but now is a great time to buy. Banks want to clean up their inventory, competing buyers are fewer, and it is a perfect time to pick one off!

      We did  have a winner in our Hollywood guest contest. Our winner knew it was Charleton Heston as the “good actor” in Wayne’s World 2.  This week’s contest is almost a “freebie” so get those answers in early. You need the actor, the role, and the movie to win the Starbucks card.

      Here’s this week’s episode of Foreclosure Friday Flash for December 11, 2009. Don’t forget the Saturday Morning Tour of Bank Owned Properties; just register here.

     If you’re interested in receiving Bank Owned Weekly, then click on the appropriate link – West End, Glen Allen, or Midlothian.

     Tuesday, I alluded to the great November we just had and weighed it against the same periods in ‘08 and ‘07.  The chart below vividly illustrates how strong a November we just experienced. November ‘09 sales comprised almost 10% of our sales year to date as compared historically to past November sales, which accounted for approximately 6 % of  the year to date total. Again, it makes me wonder how much of this activity can be attributed to the $8,000 Tax Credit program, since October was also uncharacteristic of past Octobers. We have not had a ”true” Spring market since 2006. There has to be a tremendous amount of pent up demand on the sidelines. It is just emerging or is it all stimulus driven by the tax credit?

     When December ‘09 concludes and I report the home sales results, I will then have 4 complete years of compiled data. Yeah, hard to believe I have been reporting on the Richmond Real Estate market that long and probably explains why the Times-Dispatch is teetering on existence. Just kidding, but how real estate is advertised and promoted is light years from the old print media. Over the weekend, I’ll try to post my West End sales numbers, but I’ve got to finish Friday’s Foreclosure Flash first since a deadline is quickly approaching. I can’t have the Foreclosure Friday Flash being posted on Saturday now, can I? Here’s the month to month and year to date chart:    

November		2009				2008				2007
Price Range		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 – 99,999		69		9.20%		54		11.4%		35		5.0%
100,000 – 199,999		294		39.40%		160		33.8%		204		29.4%
200,000 – 299,999		238		32.00%		120		25.3%		238		34.3%
300,000 – 399,999		83		11.20%		62		13.1%		111		16.0%
400,000 – 499,999		31		4.10%		33		7.0%		51		7.3%
500,000 – 599,999		14		1.80%		13		2.7%		24		3.5%
600,000 – 699,999		7		1.00%		14		3.0%		11		1.6%
700,000 – 799,999		6		0.80%		7		1.5%		6		0.9%
800,000 – 899,999		4		0.50%		3		0.6%		10		1.4%
900,000 – 999,999		0		0.00%		4		0.8%		1		0.1%
1 Million plus		0		0.00%		4		0.8%		3		0.4%
Total Sales/Pct.		746		100.00%		474		100.00%		694		100.00%
YTD thru November		2009				2008				2007
Price Range		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales		# of Sales		% of Ttl Sales
0 – 99,999		729		9.60%		431		5.4%		485		4.3%
100,000 – 199,999		2674		35.20%		2,308		29.1%		3,205		28.5%
200,000 – 299,999		2436		32.00%		2,696		34.0%		3,829		34.1%
300,000 – 399,999		935		12.20%		1,256		15.9%		1,859		16.6%
400,000 – 499,999		397		5.20%		551		7.0%		847		7.5%
500,000 – 599,999		209		2.70%		271		3.4%		392		3.5%
600,000 – 699,999		104		1.30%		156		2.0%		236		2.1%
700,000 – 799,999		62		0.80%		92		1.2%		138		1.2%
800,000 – 899,999		27		0.40%		56		0.7%		93		0.8%
900,000 – 999,999		16		0.20%		26		0.3%		52		0.5%
1 Million plus		29		0.40%		83		1.1%		100		0.9%
Total Sales/Pct.		7618		100.00%		7,926		100.00%		11,236		100.00%

  I guess I’ll have to wait until summer to evaluate the effect of the $8,000 1st Time Home Buyer Tax Credit; since it’s been extended and also enhanced to include “move up” buyers with a $6,500 tax credit incentive, but November sales showed an uncharacteristic strength for this time of year. Unit sales in November ‘09 were 270 sales higher than November ‘08 and also exceeded November sales in ‘07 by almost 70 units. I feel like I’m sitting on the rail at a racetrack yelling “com’on Sales com’on Sales” as we race towards the finish line of ‘09. I think we’ll finish the year with only a 5 % drop in units sales from ‘08, which equates out to about 1 less sale out of about 8,500 total ‘08 sales – a feat I would have not thought possible halfway through the year.  I’ll elaborate more later this week, but here’s the snapshot:

 For the 15 single family homes sold in

For the 15 single family homes sold in

Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond

(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)

Average Sales Price in November $ 299,825

Median Sales Price …………..   $ 296,400

Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 96 %

Days on Market …………………….. 54

Months of Inventory …………..  8.3

Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 1,936 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….$ 157.75

For the 18 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond

(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)

Average Sales Price in November $ 277,469

Median Price ………………………  $ 239,950

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 96 %

Days on Market ……………………. 65

Months of Inventory ………….. 3.7

Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,727 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……..   $ 162.28

 For the 7 homes sold on the Northside of the City of Richmond

(Zip 23227 Holton School District)

Average Sales Price in November $ 218,121

Median Price ………………………  $ 225,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 99 %

Days on Market ……………………. 41

Months of Inventory ………….  6.0

Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2 baths of 1,488 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……..   $ 152.48

For the 27 homes sold on the Southside of the City of Richmond

(Zip 23225)

Average Sales Price in November $ 185,488

Median Price ………………………  $ 170,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 96 %

Days on Market ……………………. 57

Months of Inventory ………….  6.7

Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,504 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……..   $ 122.57

 For the 64 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County

(Zips 23226, 23229, 23230, 23233, 23238)

Average Sales Price in November $ 284,400

Median Sales Price ……………    $ 225,500

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……….  96 %

Days on Market …………………….    61

Months of Inventory ………….     6.2

Average Size 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,142 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ………. $ 132.72

 For the 88 single family homes sold in Chesterfield

(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)

Average Sales Price for November $ 245,168

Median Sales Price …………… $ 229,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……..  97 %

Average Days on Market……………. 78

Months of Inventory ……………..  10.0

Average Size 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,314 square ft

Average $ per square foot ………..$ 107.67

For the 60 single family homes sold in Glen Allen

(Zips 23059 and 23060)

Average Sales Price for November $ 316,296

Median Sales Price………………   $ 290,750

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………  98 %

Average Days on Market ………….  69

Months of Inventory ……………   6.4

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,475 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……… $ 128.14

For the 37 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville

(Zips 23111 and 23116)

Average Sales Price for November $ 231,566

Median Price ……………………     $ 220,000

Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 97 %

Average Days on Market ………….. 74

Months of Inventory ……………  11.7

Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 1,981 sq ft

Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 121.06

For 91 single family homes sold in Midlothian

(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)

Average Sales Price for November $ 309,518

Median Price ……………………..   $ 262,500

Sales Price List Price Ratio …….    98 %

Average Days on Market …………..  92

Months of Inventory …………….  6.6

Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,471 sq ft

Average $ per square foot……….. $ 124.48

     Well, I think I can finally come down from the high ground. Yeah, I am tired of all this rain. Kinda of a disappointing week for the Flash. I looked at over 30 “new” bank owned listings this week and guess what? Not a decent deal in the lot, but I got 2 picks I want you to keep your eye on. 

     We finally had a winner in our name the “Hollywood” guest. It was John “The Duke” Wayne as Will Anderson in The Cowboys. Com’ on now let’s make it 2 in a row.  You need the actor, the role, and the movie to win the Starbucks card.

      Here’s this week’s episode of Foreclosure Friday Flash for December 4, 2009:

     If you’re interested in receiving Bank Owned Weekly, then click on the appropriate link – West End, Glen Allen, or Midlothian.