August 16, 2010
West End Homes Sales July ‘10 and YTD
Whew, I am glad all is right with the world now and I am current on posting West End home sales. I continue to be very busy, which is great problem to have in this market. The problem is while I am busy, it is not productive. Buyers are still out there, but making them pull the trigger is a different story. Everyone wants the “slam dunk” deal. Yes, they extraordinary deals are out there, but the ballgame can just as easily been won with lots of doubles and singles as opposed to the home run. Here are the sales for the West End in July.
| July 2010 |
Zone 20 |
Zone 22 | Zone 34 | |||||||||
| Price Range |
# of Sales |
% of Ttl Sales |
# of Sales |
% of Ttl Sales |
# of Sales |
% of Ttl Sales |
||||||
| 0 – 99,999 |
0 |
0.00% |
0 |
0.00% |
0 |
0.00% |
||||||
| 100,000 – 199,999 |
2 |
14.29% |
14 |
17.50% |
10 |
16.13% |
||||||
| 200,000 – 299,999 |
4 |
28.57% |
25 |
31.25% |
23 |
37.10% |
||||||
| 300,000 – 399,999 |
4 |
28.57% |
19 |
23.75% |
12 |
19.35% |
||||||
| 400,000 – 499,999 |
2 |
14.29% |
11 |
13.75% |
6 |
|
9.68% |
|||||
| 500,000 – 599,999 |
0 |
0.00% |
4 |
5.00% |
6 |
|
9.68% |
|||||
| 600,000 – 699,999 |
1 |
7.14% |
2 |
2.50% |
|
4 |
6.45% |
|||||
| 700,000 – 799,999 |
0 |
0.00% |
3 |
3.75% |
|
0 |
0.00% |
|||||
| 800,000 – 899,999 |
0 |
0.00% |
1 |
1.25% |
1 |
1.61% |
||||||
| 900,000 – 999,999 |
0 |
0.00% |
0 |
0.00% |
0 |
0.00% |
||||||
| 1 Million plus |
1 |
7.14% |
1 |
1.25% |
0 |
0.00% |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
| Total Sales/Pct. |
14 |
100.00% |
80 |
100.00% |
62 |
100.00% |
||||||
| YTD thru July 2010 |
Zone 20 |
Zone 22 | Zone 34 | |||||||||
| Price Range |
# of Sales |
% of Ttl Sales |
# of Sales |
% of Ttl Sales |
# of Sales |
% of Ttl Sales |
||||||
| 0 – 99,999 |
1 |
0.71% |
3 |
0.64% |
2 |
0.47% |
||||||
| 100,000 – 199,999 |
23 |
16.31% |
105 |
22.53% |
93 |
21.73% |
||||||
| 200,000 – 299,999 |
37 |
26.24% |
179 |
36.48% |
158 |
36.92% |
||||||
| 300,000 – 399,999 |
35 |
24.82% |
80 |
17.17% |
77 |
17.99% |
||||||
| 400,000 – 499,999 |
11 |
7.80% |
34 |
7.30% |
44 |
|
10.28% |
|||||
| 500,000 – 599,999 |
6 |
4.26% |
24 |
5.15% |
29 |
|
6.78% |
|||||
| 600,000 – 699,999 |
10 |
7.09% |
14 |
3.00% |
|
17 |
3.97% |
|||||
| 700,000 – 799,999 |
2 |
1.42% |
9 |
1.93% |
|
3 |
0.70% |
|||||
| 800,000 – 899,999 |
4 |
2.84% |
7 |
1.50% |
3 |
0.70% |
||||||
| 900,000 – 999,999 |
1 |
0.71% |
3 |
0.64% |
1 |
0.23% |
||||||
| 1 Million plus |
11 |
7.80% |
8 |
1.72% |
1 |
0.23% |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
| Total Sales/Pct. |
141 |
100.00% |
466 |
100.00% |
428 |
100.00% |
2 down 1 to go. Here are June numbers. Now the interesting trend to watch will be whether the 2nd half of ‘10 will be able to match the 1st half. My guess is no, unless there is a real confidence shift in this country.
I know I haven’t posted West End sales for the months of May, June and July. I find myself with some extra time this a.m. so I thought I’d rectified that problem. Note how in May and June there is a spike in the number of sales. Just one more indicator of the effects of the $8,000 Tax Credit for 1st Time Home Buyers that initially had to settle before 6/30/10.
So now we’ve got a real dilemma. Will sales in ‘10 at least keep pace with ‘09 sales or will ‘10 be the 4th year of declining home sales for Richmond? You all know that I am the eternal optimist so I my projection is ‘10 will keep pace with ‘09, but it won’t be much of a gain. This country needs some CONFIDENCE; and with an approaching election, I think we’ll hear plenty of lip service. The most compelling factor currently aiding Real Estate is the mortgage rate, which is lower than I have ever seen. Even if prices decline more, you’ll not be able to duplicate the current available payments should rates rise. And rates will rise. If I were to guess when, I’d put it at right after the election
Yikes!!! Was pretty scary this morning, when I was looking at the number of closed sales for July versus the closed sales we just had in June. Some areas saw a 50 % drop in those numbers. Is anyone now doubting what I have been saying about the market was driven by the $8,000 Tax Credit for 1st Time Buyers? There is some good news. The $ per square foot cost was very stable, which means home prices were stable. Days on market was consistent, too. Another good sign. Here’s the snapshot for July 2010;


Blah blah blah blah ….. blah blah blah blah. That’s suppose to be a broken record, because I STILL believe the jury is out on the state of Richmond’s Real Estate market. Not until we close the books on sales through June of this year will we know the full impact of the expiration of the 1st Time Home Buyer $8,000 Tax Credit. Yes, the figures below sure give the indication that we’re steaming ahead in ‘10, but so were we in ‘08 and then we had the financial meltdown that September. For my long term readers I know it’s seldom you hear me so pessimistic, but I am getting cynical in my old age!!! Here’s where the sales fell in May with a look backwards to ‘09 and ‘08.
Yikes!!! Didn’t realize it had been 2 weeks since I posted anything. You’ve probably enjoyed the silence?!?! Well, I don’t think I have mentioned it, but I have changed firms. I am now with Virginia Capital Realty. If you’re not familiar with Virginia Capital Realty, they are the 600 lb. gorilla in the room when it comes to Foreclosures and REOs in central Virginia. Over the last 18 – 24 months, more and more of my sales have involved foreclosures, so I decided to situate myself in the belly of the beast. But enough about me.