Brick’s Blog

     So now we’ve got a real dilemma. Will sales in ’10 at least keep pace with ’09 sales or will ’10 be the 4th year of declining home sales for Richmond? You all know that I am the eternal optimist so I my projection is ’10 will keep pace with ’09, but it won’t be much of a gain. This country needs some CONFIDENCE; and with an approaching election, I think we’ll hear plenty of lip service.  The most compelling factor currently aiding Real Estate is the mortgage rate, which is lower than I have ever seen. Even if prices decline more, you’ll not be able to duplicate the current available payments should rates rise.  And rates will rise. If I were to guess when, I’d put it at right after the election

     Here’s where the sales fell in July for the last 3 years along with the Year To Date comparisons for the same period.

      Yikes!!! Was pretty scary this morning, when I was looking at the number of closed sales for July versus the closed sales we just had in June. Some areas saw a 50 % drop in those numbers. Is anyone now doubting what I have been saying about the market was driven by the $8,000 Tax Credit for 1st Time Buyers? There is some good news. The $ per square foot cost was very stable, which means home prices were stable. Days on market was consistent, too. Another good sign. Here’s the snapshot for July 2010;

For the 12 single family homes sold in
Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond
(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)
Average Sales Price in July $ 490,876
Median Sales Price …………..   $ 472,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 95 %
Days on Market …………………….. 59
Months of Inventory …………..  10.1
Average Size 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 3,052 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….$ 163.68

For the 14 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond
(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)
Average Sales Price in July $ 408,035
Median Price ………………………  $ 323,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 97 %
Days on Market ……………………. 70
Months of Inventory ………….. 9.6
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,085 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 185.77
 
For the 10 homes sold on the Northside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23227 Holton School District)
Average Sales Price in July $ 315,400
Median Price ………………………  $ 241,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 97 %
Days on Market ……………………. 63
Months of Inventory ………….  6.2
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,385 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 137.11
 
For the 45 homes sold on the Southside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23225)
Average Sales Price in July $ 176,142
Median Price ………………….. $ 153,500
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 92 %
Days on Market ……………………. 50
Months of Inventory ………….  18.5
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,693 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 94.69

For the 79 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County
(Zips 23226, 23229, 23230, 23233, 23238)
Average Sales Price in July $ 344,090
Median Sales Price ……………    $ 304,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……….  96 %
Days on Market …………………….    55
Months of Inventory ………….     6.2
Average Size 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,485 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ………. $ 135.82
 
For the 62 single family homes sold in Chesterfield
(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)
Average Sales Price for July $ 240,357
Median Sales Price …………… $ 205,500
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……..  96 %
Average Days on Market……………. 92
Months of Inventory ……………..  16.1
Average Size 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,304 square ft
Average $ per square foot ………..$ 105.79

For the 60 single family homes sold in Glen Allen
(Zips 23059 and 23060)
Average Sales Price for July $ 349,407
Median Sales Price………………  $ 307,450
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………  97 %
Average Days on Market ………….  52
Months of Inventory ……………   7.0
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths of 2,805 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……… $ 124.02
 
For the 33 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville
(Zips 23111 and 23116)
Average Sales Price for July $ 258,842
Median Price ……………………  $ 256,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 93 %
Average Days on Market …………..  93
Months of Inventory ……………  17.5
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 2,248 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 115.65
 
For 80 single family homes sold in Midlothian
(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)
Average Sales Price for July $ 329,622
Median Price ……………………..  $ 312,734
Sales Price List Price Ratio …….    97 %
Average Days on Market …………..  71
Months of Inventory …………….  9.8
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths of 2,840 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……….. $ 113.83

     Amazing how incentive works. Give someone a great reason, particularly a financial one, to do something; and you’ll see results. June’s numbers certainly illustrate the power of the 1st Time Homebuyer Credit of $ 8,000 as 1st Time Buyers closed their purchases prior to the original expiration date of June 30. The deadline has since been extended to September 30, 2010, but you still had to have your purchase under contract prior to April 30th, 2010.  Of course, if the public had known there was going to be this extension, the new home builders may have gotten some badly needed sales. Oh well, who ever thought the government understood business.  Here’s where June sales fell with the monthly and year to date comparisons with 2009 and 2008.

     The snapshot this month is in many ways deceptive. The number of homes sold in the various submarkets makes it look like we have a robust market. The same applies to the months of inventory figures. You’d think we were in an equilibrium, if not seller’s, market. We’re not. These inflated numbers are “the last hurrah” of the effects of the $8,000 1st Time Homebuyer Credit. Next month we’ll get back to reality. Expect about about a 1/3 drop in units sales. Months of inventory will skyrocket and put most markets in a 9 month plus number for inventories.  

Here’s the snapshot:

For the 24 single family homes sold in
Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond
(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)
Average Sales Price in June $ 341,020
Median Sales Price …………..   $ 309,500
Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 99 %
Days on Market …………………….. 37
Months of Inventory …………..  5.5
Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 1,984 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….$ 166.86

For the 42 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond
(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)
Average Sales Price in June $ 430,125
Median Price ………………………  $ 341,750
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 96 %
Days on Market ……………………. 60
Months of Inventory ………….. 3.1
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,204 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 185.54

For the 21 homes sold on the Northside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23227 Holton School District)
Average Sales Price in June $ 240,514
Median Price ………………………  $ 235,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 96 %
Days on Market ……………………. 63
Months of Inventory ………….  3.8
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,818 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 133.25

For the 45 homes sold on the Southside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23225)
Average Sales Price in June $ 213,402
Median Price ………………….. $ 206,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 97 %
Days on Market ……………………. 53
Months of Inventory ………….  4.6
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,853 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 109.99

For the 105 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County
(Zips 23226, 23229, 23230, 23233, 23238)
Average Sales Price in June $ 322,226
Median Sales Price ……………    $ 249,950
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……….  97 %
Days on Market …………………….    52
Months of Inventory ………….     4.7
Average Size 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,390 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ………. $ 133.86

For the 139 single family homes sold in Chesterfield
(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)
Average Sales Price for June $ 251,388
Median Sales Price …………… $ 220,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……..  97 %
Average Days on Market……………. 86
Months of Inventory ……………..  6.0
Average Size 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,307 square ft
Average $ per square foot ………..$ 107.80

For the 83 single family homes sold in Glen Allen
(Zips 23059 and 23060)
Average Sales Price for June $ 361,429
Median Sales Price………………  $ 319,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………  97 %
Average Days on Market ………….  71
Months of Inventory ……………   4.7
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths of 2,904 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……… $ 124.89

For the 47 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville
(Zips 23111 and 23116)
Average Sales Price for June $ 254,091
Median Price ……………………  $ 240,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 96 %
Average Days on Market …………..  67
Months of Inventory ……………  11.9
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 2,132 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 122.54
 
For 128 single family homes sold in Midlothian
(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)
Average Sales Price for June $ 299,116
Median Price ……………………..  $ 270,475
Sales Price List Price Ratio …….    96 %
Average Days on Market …………..  72
Months of Inventory …………….  5.9
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,550 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……….. $ 116.42

     It’s nice when a couple renovates a home and knows exactly how they would have liked it; if it would have been their first home. This story and half Brick Cape Cod has been meticulously rehabbed, revitalized, refurbished .. well just recreated into a delightful home anyone would proudly proclaim as theirs. Just wait until you see all the little touches which have been accented with ideal paint colors, tile selections, light fixtures, appliances, cabinets and counter tops. Nothing has been overlooked, but see for yourself by watching the Visual Tour.

     Blah blah blah blah ….. blah blah blah blah. That’s suppose to be a broken record, because I STILL believe the jury is out on the state of Richmond’s Real Estate market. Not until we close the books on sales through June of this year will we know the full impact of the expiration of the 1st Time Home Buyer $8,000 Tax Credit. Yes, the figures below sure give the indication that we’re steaming ahead in ’10, but so were we in ’08 and then we had the financial meltdown that September. For my long term readers I know it’s seldom you hear me so pessimistic, but I am getting cynical in my old age!!! Here’s where the sales fell in May with a look backwards to ’09 and ’08.

     Yikes!!! Didn’t realize it had been 2 weeks since I posted anything. You’ve probably enjoyed the silence?!?! Well, I don’t think I have mentioned it, but I have changed firms. I am now with Virginia Capital Realty. If you’re not familiar with Virginia Capital Realty, they are the 600 lb. gorilla in the room when it comes to Foreclosures and REOs in central Virginia.  Over the last 18 – 24 months, more and more of my sales have involved foreclosures, so I decided to situate myself in the belly of the beast. But enough about me.

     May was a stellar month. Tons of sales. Lower months of inventory numbers. Higher dollar per square foot cost. Higher Sales Price/List Price ratios. Why you would think it was 2005 again. Not so fast, slick. Let’s wait until July ’10 numbers, so we can be sure all the demand from the $8,000 Tax Credit is manipulating the market snapshot. Here’s the snapshot for May: 

For the 16 single family homes sold in
Fan & Museum District of the City of Richmond
(Fox and John B. Cary School Districts)
Average Sales Price in May $ 345,093
Median Sales Price …………..   $ 299,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio …….. 95 %
Days on Market …………………….. 56
Months of Inventory …………..  7.4
Average Size 3 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,063 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….$ 165.01

For the 32 homes sold in West End of the City of Richmond
(Zips 23221, 23226 and 23230)
Average Sales Price in May $ 409,860
Median Price ………………………  $ 293,750
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 96 %
Days on Market ……………………. 58
Months of Inventory ………….. 5.8
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,142 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 181.63

For the 11 homes sold on the Northside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23227 Holton School District)
Average Sales Price in May $ 245,086
Median Price ………………………  $ 235,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 96 %
Days on Market ……………………. 36
Months of Inventory ………….  5.7
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,779 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 137.61

For the 43 homes sold on the Southside of the City of Richmond
(Zip 23225)
Average Sales Price in May $ 189,409
Median Price ………………….. $ 159,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……. 94 %
Days on Market ……………………. 57
Months of Inventory ………….  5.1
Average Size 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 1,666 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……..   $ 111.26
 
For the 86 single family homes sold in West End of Henrico County
(Zips 23226, 23229, 23230, 23233, 23238)
Average Sales Price in May $ 340.433
Median Sales Price ……………    $ 275,625
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……….  97 %
Days on Market …………………….    75
Months of Inventory ………….     5.8
Average Size 4 bedrooms 2.5 baths of 2,502 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ………. $ 134.84
 
For the 88 single family homes sold in Chesterfield
(Zips 23831, 23832, 23834, 23836, and 23838)
Average Sales Price for May $ 231,974
Median Sales Price …………… $ 200,850
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……..  97 %
Average Days on Market……………. 69
Months of Inventory ……………..  11.3
Average Size 4 bedroom, 2.5 baths of 2,220 square ft
Average $ per square foot ………..$ 106.08
 
For the 80 single family homes sold in Glen Allen
(Zips 23059 and 23060)
Average Sales Price for May $ 299,854
Median Sales Price………………  $ 273,100
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ………  97 %
Average Days on Market ………….  70
Months of Inventory ……………   5.1
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,461 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……… $ 121.85
 
For the 58 single family homes sold in Mechanicsville
(Zips 23111 and 23116)
Average Sales Price for May $ 251,289
Median Price ……………………  $ 228,925
Sales Price/List Price Ratio ……… 97 %
Average Days on Market …………..  75
Months of Inventory ……………  9.8
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths 2,151 sq ft
Average $ per square foot ……….. $ 120.61
 
For 120 single family homes sold in Midlothian
(Zips 23112, 23113, and 23114)
Average Sales Price for May $ 281,707
Median Price ……………………..  $ 235,000
Sales Price List Price Ratio …….    97 %
Average Days on Market …………..  76
Months of Inventory …………….  6.4
Average Size 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths of 2,337 sq ft
Average $ per square foot……….. $ 119.80

        As we enter the historic Spring Market period, it will be interesting to see if we have one. Frankly, I think the last Spring Market was ’06. The Spring Market has always been stoked by folks making the school district move. Stay tuned and we’ll if the Spring Market comes to fruitition. Anyway, here are West End Sales for April and year to date. 

Think about this! 206 years ago today, Lewis and Clark set off from St. Louis on their great expedition. You know I spend every week exploring, too, as I seek out the best buys for you. My pick this week is one that I first saw over 120 days ago and dismissed it as being way overpriced, but as you’ll hear me say often “what you won’t consider today, you’ll consider tomorrow”. When the price gets right, EVERYTHING sells.

Only one correct answer last week and we had a repeat winner. Way to go, Joan Talley. This week’s contest is a tough one. I might up the ante for a correct answer on this one. Remember to win the Starbucks card, I need the actor, the role and the movie.

Hey, and I need more Fans for Foreclosure Friday Flash on Facebook. So if you’re on FB, hit the “like” button in THIS LINK!

If you’re interested in receiving Bank Owned Weekly, then click on the appropriate link – West End, Glen Allen, or Midlothian. When you sign up for Bank Owned Weekly, you will also receive Foreclosure Friday Flash delivered to your inbox every Friday.

If you want to see anything, just call me. 804.301.7598.

     Wow, how about 20 % jump in units sold in April over March? Yeah, I know I sound like a broken record, but I have to wonder if we really experienced the last hurrah for home sales with the expiration of the first time home buyer credit. Tomorrow I post numbers for the West End, but here are April numbers with April ’09 and April ’08.