January 17, 2008
Richmond Real Estate Market Conditions - December 2007
As you should know by now, I report market conditions monthly for the Greater Richmond area to Realty Times. Here are my comments for December:
Where you been, Brick? Didn’t think you’d ever get around to posting your market conditions. It really must be bad, if you, the supreme optimist, have been delaying giving us the bad news. No, it’s not that I have been avoiding this assignment. It’s just that my mind has been elsewhere lately, because as far as I am concern 2007 is now history and I want to move on. See, we knew it was bad. You’re not even going to tell us, are you? Sure I am, but I hate to disappoint you, because as The Supremes might say, “It’s the Same Old Song”. Let’s run through the highlights.For 2007, single family sales for the Richmond area were down 10.9 %. Last month, I told you I thought we’d end year at 11 %. Sorry, I missed the number. For 2007, the average sales price was up 5.1%. Not exactly the double digit appreciation we’ve come to expect in Richmond, but not so shabby considering all the doom and gloom out there. Okay, happy now?Well, Brick isn’t happy and here’s why. Pending sales for December were way down - over 30 % from both a year ago and from last month. While existing inventory levels dropped almost 7 % from November’s number, the frightening number is that inventory levels are up38 % from the level where we started 2007. Over 8,300 units in January ’07 versus over 11,500 units now. Yikes. So if we continue to have a dropping sales number, there is no way we’ll chip away at all the excess inventory unless we have a marvelous Spring market, which has been absent in Richmond for the last 2 years. The good news is I have been seeing many buyers in the market as have many of my agent friends. Interest rates are simply incredible. So you know I am still singing the “same song” of the great opportunities out there for buyers.For buyers, either entering the market for the first time or who have their existing home under contract, welcome to a true BUYERS’ MARKET. The selection of properties is simply UNBELIEVABLE. “MUST SELL” situations are everywhere and some of the best deals in years will be had while these inventory levels are elevated. So call me, let’s go find one of those incredible bargains while we can.In the next few days, I’ll be posting a comparison of December ’06 and December ’07. It will be quite enlightening and great proof of just how resilient the Richmond Real Estate market is.
I also report statistics (i.e., average sales price, sales price to list price ratio, median sales price, days on market, average size, and average dollar per square foot costs) for various submarkets (i.e., Chesterfield, Glen Allen, Mechanicsville, and Midlothian.) If you have an interest in these stats, you may find them here. You will need to scroll down beyond the generic introduction. (Please note that I have been blogging many of these statistics as I compile them each month, so you may want to check previous posts for that information.)
Robin Pearsall said,
January 24, 2008 @ 10:13 am
Hi Brick! As I have told you I love your blog - from one closet analyst to another! Seeing the dramatic drop in pendings and solds over the past 4 months and increase in inventory, couples with a (what???) and INCREASE in prices, leaves me saying, “duh”. This is basic economics. Home prices are very very elastic - if prices would drop 5-10%, then we could easily get back to the fluid market that we had in 2005. Too many sellers priced their homes too high to start, so a 5-10% drop at this point is only getting them back to the starting gate. If sellers/agents priced homes as though today were January 2005, we would see much lower prices and much swifter sales. Give me 2005 prices and I will give you a 2005 buyer! Hope 2008 is “200-Great” for you!