When the supreme optimist (i.e., moi) starts using pictures of Chicken Little, Alfred E. Newman and now Eeyore to introduce his articles, than the news must not be good. As I had suspected earlier in the month, June ‘07 sales dramatically lagged June ‘06 numbers when reported by Central Virginia Multiple Listing Service (CVMLS) yesterday. While I had anticipated a number as high as 350, yesterday’s 305 difference was almost heartening news. Unfortunately, this dismal showing now puts ‘07 some 304 units behind ‘06 sales and we’re only halfway through the year. While 2006 was considered an off year in comparison to 2005, the entire difference for the year between ‘05 and ‘06 was only 386 units. 

     We’re now in our second consecutive year without a "Spring Market." 2nd quarter of 2007 was downright pathetic. Through the 1st quarter, 2007 was ahead of both ‘06 and ‘05. To be behind ’06 by the previously cited 304 units and 270 units behind 05’s numbers does not bode well for the rest of the year. I don’t get it. The Dow just made its 30th new high for ‘07 yesterday. Mortgages rates are good. Unemployment low. Where is the consumer confidence? Certainly not in the housing market.

     Here’s what the year to date numbers look like:

 

    2007 2006 2005
Units Price Units Price Units Price
January 837 259,955 800 249,142 938 208,158
February 993 262,629 889 234,127 869 212,460
March 1,369 264,682 1,350 269,140 1,359 219,894
April 1,284 277,711 1,315 268,161 1,385 221,493
May 1,470 281,685 1,598 258,141 1,547 229,830
June 1,582 296,568 1,887 278,409 1,707 265,503
YTD/Avg Px 7,535 273,872 7,839 259,520 7,805 226,223